The USDA Foreign Ag Serive (Post) projects increased production in both Chilean walnuts and almonds in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to high yields caused by plentiful rainfall and favorable temperatures. Post estimates walnut production will reach 195,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2024/25, a 11.4 percent increase year over year. Walnut exports will total 192,500 MT (in-shell basis), which represents a 12.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24. Meanwhile, walnut area planted is projected to increase only slightly, continuing a trend from recent years of stagnating growth. Producers have shifted to more profitable crops such as cherries, lemons, and mandarins, and because of changes in land use as urban areas continue to expand in the central area of the country. For almonds, Post projects that production will reach 11,500 MT for MY 2024/25, a 1.8 percent increase over MY 2023/24. Chilean almond exports will total 7,600 MT, a 4.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24.
Commodities:
Walnuts, Inshell Basis
Production:
In MY 2024/25, due to high yields, Post estimates walnut production at 195,000 MT, a 11.4 percent increase year over year. Post expects yields to increase in MY 2024/25, due to a winter with abundant rainfall and chill hour accumulation, and assuming no unexpected climatic events during the spring and summer which could lower production. In MY 2023/24, yields were low as production was hindered due to unfavorable climatic conditions.
Post expects area planted in MY 2024/25 to increase slightly, by 0.8 percent, to 45,000 hectares because growth in the central-southern walnut production regions is offset by a decrease in the central- northern regions.
In MY 2023/24, area planted decreased by 3.5 percent, totaling 44,626 hectares (Figure 1). Area planted is concentrated mainly in the central-south part of the country, specifically in the Metropolitana, O’Higgins and Maule regions, which together hold over 72 percent of the area planted (table 2). However, area planted in the Metropolitana region, the top walnut producing region in Chile, decreased by 5.5 percent. Walnut area planted was replaced by more profitable crops such as cherries, lemons, and mandarins, or was displaced by expansion of the urban area. Walnut area planted also decreased in the regions in the central-north part of the country, Valparaiso and Coquimbo. In these regions, area planted with walnuts was replaced mainly by citrus and cherries.
Consumption:
In MY 2024/25, Post estimates consumption at 2,850 MT, a 1.8 percent increase over MY 2023/24, following higher production and population growth which is situated at close to one percent annually. Producers export most of their walnut production, and domestic consumption of walnuts represents a little over one percent of total production. Local consumers use shelled walnuts for snacks. Walnuts for snacks are generally the highest quality in terms of color, size and shape. The confectionary industry uses fragmented walnuts as an ingredient in desserts, pastries, and chocolates.
Trade:
For MY 2024/25, due to higher production, Post projects 192,500 MT of walnut exports (in-shell basis), which represents a 12.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24. For MY 2023/24, Post estimates that walnut exports will finalize at 171,788 MT, which represents a 9.9 percent decrease from the previous marketing year.
Figure 2 shows monthly export volume of walnuts. In MY 2023/24, monthly exports show low volumes compared to the previous marketing year, especially in May and June, which are regularly peak export months. The low exports volumes follow low production volumes and a reduction in walnut quality due to unfavorable climatic conditions.
In MY 2023/24 (January to June data) exports decreased by 40.6 percent in volume and 32.2 percent in value (see Table 3 and Table 4). Post estimates that this high decrease in exports is due to the low export volumes observed in the first half of MY 2023/24. Post expects exports to increase in August and September, which are peak export months for Chilean walnuts.
In MY 2022/23 Turkey, India and Italy were the top markets for Chilean walnuts. The Chilean walnut export industry has focused a lot of its marketing efforts in developing the Indian market. Exports to India increased by 108 percent and became Chile’s top market for in-shell walnuts, displacing Turkey, which had been the top market for in-shell walnuts in the past. On the other hand, the European market imports most of the Chilean shelled walnuts.
Stocks:
Post projects MY 2024/25 stocks at 4,000 MT, unchanged from the previous marketing year, assuming regular market conditions. Chilean walnut exporters do not store large quantities of walnuts unless there are specific market conditions that justify it, such as high freight costs or low prices. Post estimates MY 2023/24 stocks at 4,000 MT, which is a 29.5 percent increase over MY 2022/23. This increase is due to a lower quality crop, which decreased the share of almonds that complied with export quality requirements, which will result in an increase in stocks.
Policy:
No policy updates since the last GAIN report.
Commodities:
Almonds, Shelled Basis
Production:
For MY 2024/25, Post estimates almond area planted at 8,700 hectares, a 0.3 percent decrease over MY 2023/24 (see Table 5). Almond area planted spans from the Coquimbo region, in the northern part of the country, to the O’Higgins region in the central south. The top almond producing region in Chile is the O’Higgins region, which holds 37.7 percent of the area planted and which grew 11.1 percent in the past three years (table 6). On the contrary, the second top production region, the Metropolitana region, decreased by 13.3 percent in a three-year period. The Metropolitana region comprises 35.9 percent of the almond area planted.
For MY 2024/25, Post projects that production will reach 11,500 MT, a 1.8 percent increase over MY 2023/24. This increase is driven by high yields and assumes no adverse climatic events that could hinder production. In MY 2023/24, almonds experienced adverse climatic conditions which lowered yields. As a result, Post estimates MY 2023/24 production volume will decrease by 9.6 percent and total 11,300 metric tons. However, almond production remains a good and relatively profitable alternative to other crops which have grown substantially in area planted, such as cherries, citrus, and walnuts.
Consumption:
In MY 2023/24, Post projects almond consumption at 7,700 MT, a 1.3 percent increase over MY 2022/23 due to population growth and a high demand for almonds. The domestic market for almonds is attractive for producers due to the competitive prices observed in Chile. Post estimates that 67 percent of commercial production is consumed domestically.
Chile also imports almonds for use in the confectionary industry. The industry uses imported almonds to produce chocolates since they require smaller sized flat almonds that are not characteristic of the Chilean varieties.
Trade:
In MY 2024/25, Post estimates that total exports of Chilean almonds will reach 7,600 MT, a 4.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24 due to the higher yields and production volume. In MY 2023/24 (data until June), Chilean almond exports decreased by 20.5 percent in volume and 6.3 percent in value over MY 2022/23 (see Table 7 and 8). This decrease in exports follows the decrease in production.
Figure 4 shows monthly almond exports. Almond monthly export volume in MY 2023/24 is lower compared to the previous marketing year. This reduction in exports is explained by lower almond production. Exports usually peak between June and October each marketing year since exporters can pack and store until they can allocate their exports and maximize their sale price.
Top markets for Chilean almonds are Argentina, Russia, and Ecuador. Exports to Argentina grew by 10.2 percent in MY 2022/23. Exports to Russia grew by 59.6 percent as market conditions for Chilean exporters recovered in MY 2022/23. Ecuador remains the third top market for Chilean almonds, although almond export to Ecuador decreased by 10.5 percent in MY 2022/23.
Post estimates that in MY 2024/25 almond imports will increase by 14.3 percent and total 4,000 MT to cover domestic consumption needs. Post expects an increase in imports as production remains virtually stagnant and consumption keeps growing at a moderate rate. The United States remains the top supplier of almonds to Chile. In MY 2023/24 (data until June), Chile imported 1,675 MT of almonds, representing a 3.3 percent increase over MY 2022/23. Ninety-nine percent of total almond imports were sourced from the United States.
Stocks:
Post estimates stocks in MY 2024/25 at 819 MT, a 32.3 percent increase, assuming higher production. Chilean almond exporters do not store large stocks of almonds, and stocks correspond to regular remaining monthly stocks.
Policy:
No policy updates since the last GAIN report. — By Sergio Gonzalez, USDA Foreign Ag Service
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