Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: USDA

  • USDA Forecasts Slightly Larger Almond Crop

    Almond Board of California — The 2025 California Almond Subjective Forecast, published May 12 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2025 will come in at 2.8 billion pounds, 3 percent above last year’s 2.73 billion pounds.

    Forecasted yield is 2,010 pounds per acre, up 30 pounds from the 2024 harvest.

    “This larger crop estimate is what the industry expected after a solid water winter and generally good weather during bloom, but it’s also a testament to the hard work done by almond farmers throughout California,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Demand for California almonds around the globe continues to grow and our almond farmers constantly deliver, producing high quality California almonds to meet that demand.”

    The report shared that the 2025 almond bloom began the first week of February in the Sacramento Valley and peaked during the middle of the month. The weather during bloom varied throughout the state, with storms bringing heavy rainfall, wind and hail. Crop development in the San Joaquin Valley was slower than normal due to cool temperatures and lower bee flight hours. However, conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures accelerating the crop’s progress through the end of bloom.

    There were also reports of significantly lower yields in the Nonpareil variety due to an overall lighter flower set than their pollinators. The impact on orchards from the intense summer heat in 2024 continues to be assessed. Growers are actively irrigating, fertilizing and treating their orchards for pests and diseases. Water is not expected to be an issue this year.

    This Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 21 to May 7 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 10, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2025 California Almond Objective Report, which will be based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2025 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California has slightly increased about 6,000 acres from the previous year to 1.389 million bearing acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast and Objective Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

  • Overwhelming Grower Support to Continue Almond Board of California

    The Almond Board of California is pleased to announce that California almond growers voted to continue their almond federal marketing order program for five more years.

    Voting was held Dec. 4 to Dec. 20, 2024, and 90.5 percent of voting growers, who together made up 93.3 percent of the almond volume represented in the voting, supported continuing the marketing order.

    The USDA conducts a continuance referendum every five years for the Almond Board of California (ABC) marketing order. The marketing order was established by the industry in 1950 to help growers and handlers work together to address the ever-changing demands on the industry changes and to drive global demand and drive marketing success.

    For the marketing order to remain in effect, it required approval from at least two-thirds of voting growers or two-thirds of the volume of almonds represented in the vote. Growers must have produced California almonds between Aug. 1, 2023, and July 31, 2024 to take part in the voting.

    The vote represents the California almond industry’s confidence in the Almond Board and the many programs it administers and funds with industry assessment dollars. California almonds are the state’s No. 1 crop by acreage, No. 1 ag export, No. 5 crop by value and the No. 1 specialty crop export in the U.S.

    ABC’s initiatives have strengthened key areas such as domestic and international marketing, nutrition research, data collection, production research, environmental stewardship and food safety and quality. By working together, the almond industry has developed valuable tools for growers, driven demand worldwide and achieved impressive milestones over the years.

    More than 200 industry members serve on the Almond Board’s Board of Directors, committees and work groups, and ABC works to engage as many industry members as possible in planning ABC programs and to encourage growers from widely diverse segments of the almond industry to participate in activities.

    Industry members are encouraged to attend one of ABC’s many public committee and Board of Directors meetings held throughout the year. A meeting schedule may be found at Almonds.com/Events.

  • New Marketing Assistance Now Available for Specialty Crop Producers

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) $2 billion Marketing Assistance for Specialty Crops (MASC) program, aimed at helping specialty crop producers expand markets and manage higher costs, is now accepting applications from Dec. 10, 2024 through Jan. 8, 2025. Funded by the Commodity Credit Corporation, MASC was announced in November alongside the $140 million Commodity Storage Assistance Program for facilities impacted by 2024 natural disasters.

    “Specialty crop growers have typically faced higher marketing and handling costs relative to non-specialty crop producers due to the perishability of fruits, (nuts), vegetables, floriculture, nursery crops and herbs,” said FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “Through this marketing assistance program, we can expand U.S. specialty crop consumption and markets by providing specialty crop producers the financial support needed to help them engage in activities that broaden and enhance strategies and opportunities for marketing their commodities.”

    MASC helps specialty crop producers meet higher marketing costs related to:

    • Perishability of specialty crops like fruits, vegetables, floriculture, nursey crops and herbs;
    • Specialized handling and transport equipment with temperature and humidity control;
    • Packaging to prevent damage;
    • Moving perishables to market quickly; and
    • Higher labor costs.

    MASC Eligibility

    To be eligible for MASC, a producer must be in business at the time of application, maintain an ownership share and share in the risk of producing a specialty crop that will be sold in calendar year 2025.

    MASC covers the following commercially marketed specialty crops:

    • Fruits (fresh, dried);
    • Vegetables (including dry edible beans and peas, mushrooms, and vegetable seed);
    • Tree nuts;
    • Nursery crops, Christmas trees, and floriculture;
    • Culinary and medicinal herbs and spices; and
    • Honey, hops, maple sap, tea, turfgrass and grass seed.

    Applying for MASC

    Eligible established specialty crop producers can apply for MASC benefits by completing the FSA-1140, Marketing Assistance for Specialty Crops (MASC) Program Application, and submitting the form to any FSA county office by Jan. 8, 2025. When applying, eligible specialty crop producers must certify their specialty crop sales for calendar year 2023 or 2024.

    New specialty crop producers are required to certify 2025 expected sales, submit an FSA-1141 application and provide certain documentation to support reported sales i.e., receipts, contracts, acreage reports, input receipts, etc. New producers are those who began producing specialty crops in 2023 or 2024 but did not have sales due to the immaturity of the crop, began producing specialty crops in 2024 but did not have a complete year of sales or will begin growing specialty crops in 2025.

    MASC applicants, established and new, must also submit the following information to FSA if not already on file at the time of application:

    • Form AD-2047, Customer Data Worksheet.
    • Form CCC-902, Farm Operating Plan for an individual or legal entity.
    • Form CCC-941, Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) Certification and Consent to Disclosure of Tax Information.  
    • Form FSA-942, Certification of Income from Farming, Ranching and Forestry Operations, if applicable, for the producer and members of entities.
    • A highly erodible land conservation (sometimes referred to as HELC) and wetland conservation certification (Form AD-1026 Highly Erodible Land Conservation (HELC) and Wetland Conservation (WC) Certification) for the ERP producer and applicable affiliates.
    • Other Documentation if requested by FSA to support reported specialty crop sales.

    Most producers, especially those who have previously participated in FSA programs, will likely have these required forms on file. However, those who are uncertain or want to confirm the status of their forms or producers who may be new to conducting business with FSA, can contact their local FSA county office.

    For MASC program participation, eligible specialty crop sales only include sales of commercially marketed raw specialty crops grown in the United States by the producer. The portion of sales derived from adding value to a specialty crop (such as sorting, processing, or packaging) is not included when determining eligible sales. Further explanation of what is considered by FSA for specialty crop sales as well as an online MASC decision tool and applicable program forms, are available on the MASC program webpage.

    MASC Payments

    For established specialty crop growers, those who certify crop sales in 2023 or 2024, FSA will calculate MASC payments based on the producer’s total specialty crop sales for the calendar year elected by the producer. Payments for new producers will be based on their expected 2025 calendar year sales. Payment calculation details and examples are available on the MASC webpage or related questions can be directed to local FSA county office staff.

    FSA will issue MASC payments after the end of the application period. If demand for MASC payments exceeds available funding, MASC payments may be prorated, and the payment limitation of $125,000 may be lowered.  If additional funding is available after MASC payments are issued, FSA may issue an additional payment.

    Specialty crop producers interested in applying for MASC benefits, are encouraged to review the program fact sheet for detailed information on program eligibility, required documentation, payment calculations and more.

    More Information

    Additional information on MASC is available in the Notice of Funding Availability, which went on public inspection in the Federal Register on Dec. 9, 2024.

    FSA helps America’s farmers, ranchers and forest landowners invest in, improve, protect and expand their agricultural operations through the delivery of agricultural programs for all Americans. FSA implements agricultural policy, administers credit and loan programs, and manages conservation, commodity, disaster recovery and marketing programs through a national network of state and county offices and locally elected county committees. For more information, visit fsa.usda.gov.

  • Electrical Weed Control (EWC) in Organic Almonds and Blueberries

    Two years ago, I shared my first blog about the Zasso electrical weed control (EWC) unit—a tractor-mounted device powered by the tractor’s PTO. (My first blog about the basic of EWC and unit specifications)

    In spring 2023, we established two organic blocks, one with almonds and one with blueberries, to further evaluate the weed control efficacy and crop safety of the Zasso unit in newly established tree and berry systems. In these trials, we tested different combinations of speed and power to control the total current/energy flowing into the ground. This approach is similar to herbicide trials where we often test at different rates to evaluate crop injury (e.g., 2X, 4X rates). Both experiments included comparisons with standard organic weed control practices such as organic herbicide (Suppress EC), mowing, and hand weeding.

    In the blueberry experiment, we also applied two mulching types (sawdust and plastic), and each plot with different mulching types was treated with all the EWC treatments to evaluate the interactions between these two practices. Since blueberries are planted on berms, we only treated the berm shoulders with EWC (Figure 2).

    Figure 1. Organic blueberry field with three different mulching types as treatments
    Figure 2. EWC treating the shoulder of the sawdust mulching blueberry plot

    2023 Findings

    During the 2023 growing season, all EWC treatments showed promising weed control results. In the almond block, the highest-energy EWC treatment kept the floor weed-free for 35-40 days. In the blueberry block, where we used one drip line (versus two in the almond block), the shoulders stayed dry for most of the summer. After our first EWC application in late May (almond) and early June (blueberry), weed pressure in all EWC-treated blueberry plots remained low throughout the season, with some plots staying weed-free even longer than the same treatment in the almond block. We measured tree height, trunk diameter, and blueberry plant canopy volume, finding no significant differences in plant growth across treatments for either crop.

    Figure 3. EWC in organic almond block

    2024 Focus

    In 2024, we continued measuring growth data and collected soil samples for soil health analysis in both blocks. One of my research goals is to address a key grower concern about this technique by assessing the impact of EWC on soil microbes. While soil physical properties should remain unchanged (due to no soil disturbance), soil microbes—which play a crucial role in nutrient cycling—could be sensitive to electric shocks and surface temperature spikes. Then, we will look at how two years of more than 10 EWC applications will impact weed species distribution.

    Figure 4. EWC untreated (top) and treated (bottom) almond plots in April 2024

    2025 Plans 

    Coming into 2025, we plan to continue the blueberry and almond work on campus and also conduct additional research in growers’ fields and test it out in additional tree crops. We will continue to collect weed control efficacy data on an array of common orchard weeds in California. Lastly, we plan to start an experiment to examine how soil moisture at the time of EWC treatment affects the weed control efficacy and whether there are any effects from different irrigation regimes.

    Figure 6. Equipment testing in non crop area before EWC treatment in organic almond and blueberry at UC Davis.

    Frequently Asked Questions about EWC Technology

    Q: Are there any safety concerns with EWC?

    A: Yes, since this is a high-voltage application targeting above-ground vegetation, the circuit can create arcing and potentially cause fires. The manufacturer requires scouting behind the tractor during applications. Multiple EWC applications and mowing operations over a season leave dead vegetation on the ground, which can easily ignite, especially at higher power settings. We have noticed a seasonal pattern, with more fires occurring in fall than summer, and we are still investigating the causes.

    Q: How does soil moisture affect EWC operation?

    A: Soil moisture is an important factor. Soil that is too wet can cause generator overload by drawing too much energy. In contrast, overly dry soil has high electrical resistance, reducing current flow through plants. Our unit includes a setting to adjust power based on soil moisture, so selecting the right setting is essential for effective application. This is an area of ongoing research in California and with our collaborators in Oregon and New York.

    Q: How do different weed species respond to EWC?

    A: The weed growth stage matters more than species. EWC is effective on most weeds at the seedling stage but start losing efficacy with mature or flowering weeds that are woody or have less tissue moisture because electrical conductance is lower. Grasses can be challenging if they are matured and developed multiple tillers, as central tillers may avoid direct contact with the EWC applicator electrodes.

    Q: How effective is EWC on perennial weeds?

    A: EWC can manage bindweed and yellow nutsedge with multiple applications throughout the season. Regrowth and reemergence can occur if the vegetation does not directly contact with the electrode due to obstacles like soil clumps or overlapping plants. We are running an experiment to quantify perennial weed regrowth and reemergence.

    Q: Is this unit available on the market?

    A: Zasso has partnered with New Holland to bring this technology to the US. Please check out their website https://yellowblueandyou.newholland.com/en-gb/pf-global-2024/xpower-xps to look at the unit for the vineyard (XPower XPS). We will have a vineyard trial in 2025 in partnership with the farm operation and equipment distributor to evaluate the cost-efficiency of EWC in a large scale site.

    Since I have been working and studying this unit for two years, I truly believe it is a valuable option for organic berry and tree fruit and nut production. It can also become an alternative to some of the post-emergent herbicides used in integrated pest management (IPM) programs in sustainable agriculture.

    Our EWC project is funded by USDA NIFA Organic Research and Education Initiative. Please check out our website: https://eorganic.info/node/35946 for interviews and research updates from our collaborators: Moretti Lab at Oregon State University and Sosnoskie Lab at Cornell University. We are testing the same unit but on different crops. We also want to thank New Holland for the tractor support. — By Tong Zhen & Brad Hansen, UC Davis

  • Indian Market Continues on Impressive Growth Trajectory for California Tree Nuts

    For marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 (August-July), the USDA Foreign Ag Service (Post) forecasts India’s almond production marginally lower at 4,150 metric tons (MT) (shelled basis), compared to last MY estimates. For the same MY, post projects almond imports at 190,000 MT, up by six percent from the previous MY 2023/2024 estimates of 180,000 MT. Post is revising its earlier MY 2023/2024 import estimates to 180,000 MT based on the latest updated trade data. For MY 2024/2025 (September-August), post forecasts India’s walnut production at 33,200 MT (in-shell basis). For MY 2023/2024, post is revising its estimates lower at 33,000 MT as there were no seasonal rains in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, and soil degradation in the walnut regions has affected its production yield. For MY 2024/2025, post expects India’s walnut imports to reach 70,000 MT, a 17 percent increase from the previous MY estimates. India’s MY 2024/2025 (September – August) pistachio (in-shell basis) imports are forecast at 40,000 MT.

    COMMODITY
    ALMONDS, SHELLED BASIS

    PRODUCTION

    For marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 (August-July), post forecasts India’s almond production lower at 4,150 metric tons (MT) (shelled basis), owing to climate and soil challenges within the top almond producing states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. There has been a continued trend of high temperatures, a lack of soil moisture, and prolonged dryness (Figure 1) in these top growing areas, which indicates an ongoing threat to India’s almond orchards that results in damaged crops at the blooming stage and reduced fruit setting. Additionally, aging orchards and low yields are enticing farmers to shift away from almonds to more profitable, and government supported, apple cultivation.

    India’s Almond Production Locations: According to the National Horticulture Board 2021-2022 (First Advance Estimates), India’s Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir has the country’s top almond production share (91.26 percent), followed by Himachal Pradesh (8.73 percent) and Maharashtra (0.09 percent). Popular varietals grown in India include the Shalimar, Makdoon, Waris, and Kagazi (thin shell). The Kashmir Horticulture Department actively promotes the production of Kagazi almonds due to its higher yields and late blooming characteristics. Shelling rates range between 20 and 30 percent for hard-shell varieties, and 40 percent for thin-shelled varieties.

    To revive local almond cultivation and production, the Jammu and Kashmir government in recent years has launched several schemes and initiatives. These include the High-Density Plantation Scheme (HDPS), establishment of nurseries exclusively for almonds, and the development and enhancement of irrigation infrastructure.

    CONSUMPTION

    For MY 2024/2025, post estimates an increase in almond consumption at 195,660 MT, rising in tandem with Indian consumers’ growing incomes. Post is revising MY 2023/2024 estimate to 187,290 MT on account of an expanding consumer base. The increased purchasing power and the preference for healthy and nutritious snack foods is expected to continue to drive the demand for almonds. Globally, India ranks second in terms of consumption of almonds.

    With limited domestic almond production of its own, India turns to imports to satisfy its cravings for almonds. Indian media sources highlight that India’s in-shell almond imports over the last decade have grown with an astounding compound-annual-growth-rate (CAGR) of 17.5 percent. Market reports (from 2021) report that per capita consumption of almonds is about 0.11 kilograms (kg), which is a jump from the per capita figure of 0.08 kg being reported in 2019. Despite being a major importer of almonds, India’s per capita consumption of almonds, due to its large population size, is lower than that of other markets but still has major potential for expansion as consumers shift from other snacks to greater almond consumption.

    Half of India’s population is under 30 years of age, and there is a rising awareness of health and nutrition that is increasing demand for almonds. Indian consumers value the nutrient-rich crunchy nut that is packed with protein, fiber, vitamin E, and antioxidants. Traditionally, almonds have been seen to help improve memory performance and as being heart healthy.4 However, Indian almond consumption is no longer based just on traditional, cultural habits, for example, eating of almonds (soaked in water) each morning to improve memory and for the festive season. They are now commonly used in several Indian sweets as well as health drinks, breakfast cereals, snacking nuts (i.e., salted, and spicy almonds, trail mix, etc.), chocolates, cookies and ice-cream. India is also set to see a growth in the imports of some derivative products of almonds such as almond milk, flour and butter. These factors will contribute to spur the growth in India’s food processing and personal care industries. Bulk sales, associated with business and corporate gift giving, are also expanding in popularity driving overall consumption numbers upward. The packaged almond snack market in India is projected to reach Indian rupees (INR) 1 billion ($12 million) by end of calendar year 2024.

    STOCKS

    For MY 2024/2025, post estimates India’s almond ending stocks lower at 29,000 MT on expectations of continued strong domestic demand.

    TRADE

    Imports: For MY 2024/2025, post projects almond imports at 190,000 MT, up by six percent from the previous MY 2023/2024 estimates. Post is revising its earlier MY 2023/2024 estimate to 180,000 MT based on the latest updated trade data. The removal of India’s 2019 retaliatory tariffs last year has strongly boosted U.S. almond exports and in value terms there has been a 30 percent growth.

    India is the top destination for U.S. almonds (Figure 2). Specifically, California- origin almonds in MY 2024/2025 account for roughly 86 percent of India’s overall almond imports; Australian- origin almond imports come in a distant second with 10 percent market share (See, Table 2). Almond imports from the United States and Australia are typically the in-shell nonpareil or Carmel varieties, which are shelled locally (i.e., machine-cracked and hand sorted). By shelling the almonds locally, value addition occurs domestically; this contributes to expanded Indian employment opportunities and helps with the Indian government’s “Make in India” initiative. Most other origins, however, supply shelled almonds.

    Though the sea freight rates oscillated between January 2023 and March 2024, almond shipments to India continued its rising trend due to growing demand.

    Exports: India, with limited domestic production of its own, will continue to have negligible exports for the foreseeable future. India’s exports will consist mainly of small quantities of branded almond snack food products being exported to neighboring countries in South Asia.

    POLICY

    India’s removal of its retaliatory tariffs in September 2023, has restored and expanded market opportunities for U.S. agricultural producers and manufacturers. The reduction of duty for almonds is from INR 41/kg to INR 35/kg on the applied rate for in-shell almonds (see, GAIN- INDIA | IN2023-0066 | Success Story – India Cuts Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Almonds-Apples- Walnuts-Chickpeas-Lentils).

    India’s Non-Tariff Barriers: India’s non-tariff barriers include stringent almond kernel quality standards as prescribed by the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI).5 These standards, as informed by local trade sources, are too strict to be widely applied across multiple commercial grades. These only create challenges, causing needless custom clearance delays.

    Traders sustain that there is a need for greater grading flexibility. Grading needs to account for varying commercial situations, including varietal differences, crop quality variability, and pricing differentials. It should not be largely premised on just physical parameters such as damage and the presence of foreign material.

    Read the full USDA Foreign Ag Service report, including detailed insights on walnut and pistachio production and market trends HERE.

  • Increase of Chilean Almond & Walnut Production/Exports Forecasted

    The USDA Foreign Ag Serive (Post) projects increased production in both Chilean walnuts and almonds in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to high yields caused by plentiful rainfall and favorable temperatures. Post estimates walnut production will reach 195,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2024/25, a 11.4 percent increase year over year. Walnut exports will total 192,500 MT (in-shell basis), which represents a 12.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24. Meanwhile, walnut area planted is projected to increase only slightly, continuing a trend from recent years of stagnating growth. Producers have shifted to more profitable crops such as cherries, lemons, and mandarins, and because of changes in land use as urban areas continue to expand in the central area of the country. For almonds, Post projects that production will reach 11,500 MT for MY 2024/25, a 1.8 percent increase over MY 2023/24. Chilean almond exports will total 7,600 MT, a 4.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24.

    Commodities:

    Walnuts, Inshell Basis

    Production:

    In MY 2024/25, due to high yields, Post estimates walnut production at 195,000 MT, a 11.4 percent increase year over year. Post expects yields to increase in MY 2024/25, due to a winter with abundant rainfall and chill hour accumulation, and assuming no unexpected climatic events during the spring and summer which could lower production. In MY 2023/24, yields were low as production was hindered due to unfavorable climatic conditions.

    Post expects area planted in MY 2024/25 to increase slightly, by 0.8 percent, to 45,000 hectares because growth in the central-southern walnut production regions is offset by a decrease in the central- northern regions.

    In MY 2023/24, area planted decreased by 3.5 percent, totaling 44,626 hectares (Figure 1). Area planted is concentrated mainly in the central-south part of the country, specifically in the Metropolitana, O’Higgins and Maule regions, which together hold over 72 percent of the area planted (table 2). However, area planted in the Metropolitana region, the top walnut producing region in Chile, decreased by 5.5 percent. Walnut area planted was replaced by more profitable crops such as cherries, lemons, and mandarins, or was displaced by expansion of the urban area. Walnut area planted also decreased in the regions in the central-north part of the country, Valparaiso and Coquimbo. In these regions, area planted with walnuts was replaced mainly by citrus and cherries.

    Consumption:

    In MY 2024/25, Post estimates consumption at 2,850 MT, a 1.8 percent increase over MY 2023/24, following higher production and population growth which is situated at close to one percent annually. Producers export most of their walnut production, and domestic consumption of walnuts represents a little over one percent of total production. Local consumers use shelled walnuts for snacks. Walnuts for snacks are generally the highest quality in terms of color, size and shape. The confectionary industry uses fragmented walnuts as an ingredient in desserts, pastries, and chocolates.

    Trade:

    For MY 2024/25, due to higher production, Post projects 192,500 MT of walnut exports (in-shell basis), which represents a 12.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24. For MY 2023/24, Post estimates that walnut exports will finalize at 171,788 MT, which represents a 9.9 percent decrease from the previous marketing year.

    Figure 2 shows monthly export volume of walnuts. In MY 2023/24, monthly exports show low volumes compared to the previous marketing year, especially in May and June, which are regularly peak export months. The low exports volumes follow low production volumes and a reduction in walnut quality due to unfavorable climatic conditions.

    In MY 2023/24 (January to June data) exports decreased by 40.6 percent in volume and 32.2 percent in value (see Table 3 and Table 4). Post estimates that this high decrease in exports is due to the low export volumes observed in the first half of MY 2023/24. Post expects exports to increase in August and September, which are peak export months for Chilean walnuts.

    In MY 2022/23 Turkey, India and Italy were the top markets for Chilean walnuts. The Chilean walnut export industry has focused a lot of its marketing efforts in developing the Indian market. Exports to India increased by 108 percent and became Chile’s top market for in-shell walnuts, displacing Turkey, which had been the top market for in-shell walnuts in the past. On the other hand, the European market imports most of the Chilean shelled walnuts.

    Stocks:

    Post projects MY 2024/25 stocks at 4,000 MT, unchanged from the previous marketing year, assuming regular market conditions. Chilean walnut exporters do not store large quantities of walnuts unless there are specific market conditions that justify it, such as high freight costs or low prices. Post estimates MY 2023/24 stocks at 4,000 MT, which is a 29.5 percent increase over MY 2022/23. This increase is due to a lower quality crop, which decreased the share of almonds that complied with export quality requirements, which will result in an increase in stocks.

    Policy:

    No policy updates since the last GAIN report.

    Commodities:

    Almonds, Shelled Basis

    Production:

    For MY 2024/25, Post estimates almond area planted at 8,700 hectares, a 0.3 percent decrease over MY 2023/24 (see Table 5). Almond area planted spans from the Coquimbo region, in the northern part of the country, to the O’Higgins region in the central south. The top almond producing region in Chile is the O’Higgins region, which holds 37.7 percent of the area planted and which grew 11.1 percent in the past three years (table 6). On the contrary, the second top production region, the Metropolitana region, decreased by 13.3 percent in a three-year period. The Metropolitana region comprises 35.9 percent of the almond area planted.

    For MY 2024/25, Post projects that production will reach 11,500 MT, a 1.8 percent increase over MY 2023/24. This increase is driven by high yields and assumes no adverse climatic events that could hinder production. In MY 2023/24, almonds experienced adverse climatic conditions which lowered yields. As a result, Post estimates MY 2023/24 production volume will decrease by 9.6 percent and total 11,300 metric tons. However, almond production remains a good and relatively profitable alternative to other crops which have grown substantially in area planted, such as cherries, citrus, and walnuts.

    Consumption:

    In MY 2023/24, Post projects almond consumption at 7,700 MT, a 1.3 percent increase over MY 2022/23 due to population growth and a high demand for almonds. The domestic market for almonds is attractive for producers due to the competitive prices observed in Chile. Post estimates that 67 percent of commercial production is consumed domestically.

    Chile also imports almonds for use in the confectionary industry. The industry uses imported almonds to produce chocolates since they require smaller sized flat almonds that are not characteristic of the Chilean varieties.

    Trade:

    In MY 2024/25, Post estimates that total exports of Chilean almonds will reach 7,600 MT, a 4.1 percent increase over MY 2023/24 due to the higher yields and production volume. In MY 2023/24 (data until June), Chilean almond exports decreased by 20.5 percent in volume and 6.3 percent in value over MY 2022/23 (see Table 7 and 8). This decrease in exports follows the decrease in production.

    Figure 4 shows monthly almond exports. Almond monthly export volume in MY 2023/24 is lower compared to the previous marketing year. This reduction in exports is explained by lower almond production. Exports usually peak between June and October each marketing year since exporters can pack and store until they can allocate their exports and maximize their sale price.

    Top markets for Chilean almonds are Argentina, Russia, and Ecuador. Exports to Argentina grew by 10.2 percent in MY 2022/23. Exports to Russia grew by 59.6 percent as market conditions for Chilean exporters recovered in MY 2022/23. Ecuador remains the third top market for Chilean almonds, although almond export to Ecuador decreased by 10.5 percent in MY 2022/23.

    Post estimates that in MY 2024/25 almond imports will increase by 14.3 percent and total 4,000 MT to cover domestic consumption needs. Post expects an increase in imports as production remains virtually stagnant and consumption keeps growing at a moderate rate. The United States remains the top supplier of almonds to Chile. In MY 2023/24 (data until June), Chile imported 1,675 MT of almonds, representing a 3.3 percent increase over MY 2022/23. Ninety-nine percent of total almond imports were sourced from the United States.

    Stocks:

    Post estimates stocks in MY 2024/25 at 819 MT, a 32.3 percent increase, assuming higher production. Chilean almond exporters do not store large stocks of almonds, and stocks correspond to regular remaining monthly stocks.

    Policy:

    No policy updates since the last GAIN report. — By Sergio Gonzalez, USDA Foreign Ag Service

  • War in Ukraine Leads to Lackluster Investment in Future of Walnut Industry

    The USDA Foreign Ag Service forecasts Ukraine’s walnut production at 101,300 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25, a 4 percent decrease against MY2023/24. Household production continues to slide as old, non- productive trees are being chopped down. Post forecasts production areas for industrial growers to remain flat, as there is currently little appetite for long-term investments due to Russia’s full-scale invasion. Post forecasts MY2024/25 exports will decrease by 9 percent as large ending stocks, which were predominantly amassed during MY2021/22, have been slowly depreciating for two consecutive MYs. At the same time, rebounding imports of tree nuts in line with economic recovery and adjustment to the “new normal” are putting downward pressure on volumes of domestically consumed walnuts.

    SSSU published official production numbers for CY2023. The total walnut reported area is 16,400 ha, a 4.1 percent decrease compared to the previous CY. Walnut production is reported at 106,120 MT, similar to the previous CY. Post accepts these as MY2023/24 estimates. Note that a MY for Ukraine starts in September and ends in August; therefore, MY2023/24 refers to the period between September 2023 and August 2024.

    The main reason for sliding production area is a constant area decrease by households (Figure 1). The majority of walnuts harvested in Ukraine are produced by individuals or small private family farms harvesting trees on their land or in the vicinity of their farms. This category of producers is not typically concerned with the application of fertilizers and agrochemicals and uses manual labor to harvest and shell walnuts. Harvested walnuts are typically sold to intermediaries, who assemble batches for export or store them in-house in times of low demand or unfavorable prices.

    In CY2015, over 95 percent of Ukrainian walnut production area was on small, private family farms. In CY2023, these farms represented around 74 percent of total area. Post predicts this downward trend in walnut production on family farms will continue in the medium to long term as aging trees lose their productivity and are chopped down. However, family farms still enjoy a dominant position in production volumes, as they hold an absolute majority of the bearing tree area compared to industrial growers – 81 percent for CY2023.

    The main reason for decreasing production area among households is Ukrainian farmers began developing walnut orchards for commercial purposes in 2009. The average size of these commercial orchards ranges from 20 to 50 ha. The establishment of commercial farms can be attributed to pre-2022 GOU financial support for orchard and berry producers and the establishment of the agricultural land market in Ukraine. Industry notes that farmers were investing in high-yield commercial orchards with multiple walnut varieties, installing irrigation systems, and applying fertilizers. Some regions, especially in central and southern Ukraine, require irrigation to secure expected yields, while orchards in the northern part of Ukraine may experience lower yields because of the cooler climate. In southern Ukraine, seedlings can be planted in autumn, while in northern Ukraine, it is still advisable to plant in spring to avoid winter frost damage for newly planted trees. Walnuts are normally harvested from the end of September through the end of October.

    According to SSSU data, commercial growers scaled down their total walnut areas to 4,300 ha for MY2023/24 from a peak area of 5,600 ha in MY2019/20. This might be an indication that some growers went out of business due to uncertainties caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and are subsequently cutting down or leaving behind the newly established orchards.

    Professional growers are currently reluctant to make long-term investments due to the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine. Fruit tree import dynamics confirm this (Figure 2). The initial investment required to establish an orchard ranges from $1,200 to $1,800 per ha. Read the full report from the USDA Foreign Ag Service HERE.

  • Oakville Bluegrass Cooperative Opens Enrollment for USDA Incentive

    Oakville Bluegrass Cooperative opened enrollment for the inaugural year of the USDA climate-smart partnerships incentive to plant Oakville bluegrass, a summer-dormant perennial cover crop. Because Oakville bluegrass is dormant from April through September, it doesn’t compete with cash crops for water or nutrients making it ideal for California permanent crops. Planted on over 900 acres of vineyards and tree nut orchards, this low growing, drought tolerant cover crop will last over ten years when well managed, significantly reducing labor and input costs for growers. When well managed, this low growing, drought tolerant cover crop will last over ten years significantly reducing labor and input costs for growers.

    The first cohort of growers who take advantage of the USDA incentive can receive a $100/acre incentive per seeded acre of the cover crop on up to 150  acres. The incentive is part of the USDA’s Climate Smart Commodities Program to equip growers with resources to implement climate smart practices.

    In addition to the USDA incentive, Oakville Bluegrass Cooperative is offering free seed shipping and waiving install fees for a limited time for growers who commit to planting at least 20 seeded acres. Growers who are interested in participating in the USDA incentive and this special offer are encouraged to submit their preliminary plans soon in order to take advantage of these opportunities.

    “Oakville bluegrass occupies a unique place in the market as a permanent cover solution,” Mike Morgenfeld, Managing Director for Oakville Bluegrass Cooperative shared. “When established correctly, it reduces operating costs over time while also building soil health and conserving water. Due to its low profile and drought resistance, it’s a unique solution for specialty crop growers in California. We’re excited to offer a way for growers to start their journey with this novel cover crop at a reduced cost.”

    Interested growers can attend an online informational session on July 24 at 11 am by registering at https://www.obc.ag/events/obc-info-session-july or visit https://www.obc.ag/usda-climate-smart for more information.

  • Pecan Industry Votes to Continue Research and Promotion Program

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that pecan producers and importers voted to continue the American Pecan Promotion Board’s research and promotion program.

    In the referendum held May 10 through June 10, 2024, 74.89% of pecan producers and importers voted in favor of continuing the program. This meets the requirement that the majority of those voting were in favor of the program continuing.

    The Pecan Promotion, Research, and Information Order, which established the American Pecan Promotion program, requires USDA to conduct an initial referendum no later than three years after assessments are first collected. Subsequent continuance referendum will be conducted every seven years or at the request of 10% or more of all eligible pecan producers and importers.

    More information about the program is on the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) American Pecan Promotion Board webpage and on the American Pecan Promotion Board website.

    The pecan research and promotion program is authorized under the Commodity Promotion, Research and Information Act of 1996. The program was developed to strengthen the position of pecans in the marketplace, maintain and expand markets for pecans and develop new uses for pecans within the United States.

    Since 1966, Congress has authorized the development of industry-funded research and promotion boards to provide a framework for agricultural industries to pool their resources and combine efforts to develop new markets, strengthen existing markets and conduct important research and promotion activities. AMS provides oversight of 22 boards, paid for by industry assessments, which helps ensure fiscal accountability and program integrity.

  • USDA Funding to Address Specialty Crop Export Challenges

    U.S. Department of Agriculture Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis M. Taylor today announced the availability of funding for the first five projects under the new Assisting Specialty Crop Exports (ASCE) initiative.

    The ASCE initiative is part of USDA’s commitment to create more, new and better markets at home and abroad for U.S. producers and agribusinesses. The innovative partnership between USDA and the specialty crops sector will focus on projects to address the non-tariff trade barriers that hinder U.S. exports of fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, horticultural crops and related products.

    “Today, USDA is committing more than $20 million to support U.S. specialty crop exporters in their efforts to overcome trade barriers and open overseas markets,” Under Secretary Taylor said. “We’re excited to be accepting proposals from partners interested in implementing projects that will target cross-cutting issues that were identified in our discussions with a diverse set of stakeholders. U.S. specialty crop exports totaled $25.8 billion last year, increasing the bottom line for our producers and driving economic development in their local communities and beyond. With the ASCE initiative, we look forward to expanding specialty crop exports and generating even greater benefits.”

    The project opportunities for which USDA is accepting applications are:

    Sustainable Packaging Innovation Lab – to support research and implementation projects that advance U.S. specialty crop exports through innovative solutions to emerging overseas regulatory requirements for packaging and labeling;

    Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) Regional Harmonization – to address existing and potential trade needs in Asia, Latin America, and Africa related to MRLs for U.S. specialty crops entering these regions, while supporting development of risk-based and trade-facilitative policies that are consistent with international standards such as Codex;

    Import MRL Guideline Implementation in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economies – to support establishment of import MRLs in key U.S. export markets through the adoption and implementation of official APEC MRL guidelines that facilitate trade and are consistent with international standards such as Codex;

    Data Generation for Codex and Harmonized MRL Setting – to reduce the number of missing and misaligned MRLs by supporting collaborative research and data generation capacity for the establishment of Codex MRLs; and

    MRL Quick Reference Sheets for Specialty Crops – to develop a set of quick reference sheets for specialty crop exporters that include MRLs for the top foreign markets.

    After touring the packaging materials lab at the University of Wisconsin-Stout today, Under Secretary Taylor said, “The work being accomplished by these students and researchers will help create innovative, sustainable packaging materials that will help specialty crop exporters meet the requirements of our trading partners and extend the shelf-life of their products to ensure cost-competitive, highly nutritious American products move safely  from our farm to consumers’ plates globally.”

    For more information about the ASCE initiative and the current funding opportunity, visit: https://fas.usda.gov/programs/assisting-specialty-crop-exports-asce-initiative

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