Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: USDA NASS

  • USDA-NASS Projects Smaller Crop for California Almonds

    Almond Board of California — The California Almond Objective Measurement Report, published Monday by the United States Department of Agriculture-National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), estimates that the 2021 crop will come in at 2.8 billion meat pounds, 10 percent below last year’s record of 3.1 billion pounds. (Editor’s Note: The steep decline in production this year comes as a big surprise with the May subjective forecast suggesting a larger crop at 3.2 billion pounds)

    The drop comes during a very difficult water year across California and at a time when the almond industry is navigating a complex market with record shipments but with returns to growers down from recent years.

    “The report still forecasts a really large crop, and it’s further proof that California is an ideal place to grow almonds, even in difficult times,” said Kent Stenderup, Chair of the Almond Board of California (ABC) Board of Directors. “It’s also a testament to the hard work of growers and their efforts to improve stewardship practices and meet the demands of consumers despite the hurdles we’re facing this year.”

    The 2021 Objective Report’s forecast is 13 percent below the 2021 California Almond Subjective Forecast in May of 3.20 billion pounds. The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 4,619, down 18 percent from the 2020 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set is 4,512, down 20 percent from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.46 grams, down 3 percent from the 2020 average weight.

    “Shipment numbers show that the demand for California almonds continues to increase both in the U.S. and around the world,” said Almond Board President and CEO Richard Waycott. “The strong forecast means the California almond industry will keep up with that growing global demand with a steady supply of high quality almonds. With such strong demand, competition for the 2021 crop could lead to a much needed increase in the return to growers, which is currently below the cost of production due to the recent record crop.”

    ABC’s June 2021 Position Report showed that both exports and total shipments increased the records set in May for a single crop year, while shipments within the U.S. are on pace for a record year. Through June, total shipments reached 2.67 billion pounds. The crop year ends July 31.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Objective Report, Subjective Forecast and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions and it thanks all farm operators, owners and management entities for their time providing the information necessary to create these reports. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

    About the Almond Board of California

    Almonds from California are a healthy, natural, wholesome and quality food. The Almond Board of California promotes almonds with a research-based approach to responsible farming, production and marketing on behalf of the more than 7,600 almond growers and processors in California, many of whom have third- and fourth-generation family operations. Established in 1950 and based in Modesto, California, the Almond Board of California is a non-profit organization that administers a grower-enacted Federal Marketing Order under the supervision of the United States Department of Agriculture. For more information on the Almond Board of California or California almonds, visit Almonds.com.

  • Larger CA Almond Crop Forecasted This Year

    Almond Board of California — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting an increase in the California almond crop. The USDA-NASS 2021 California Almond Subjective Forecast estimates California almond orchards will produce 3.2 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 3 percent from last year’s 3.12 billion-pound crop. Forecasted yield is expected to reach 2,410 pounds per acre, 3 percent lower than the 2020 yield of 2,490 per acre.

    This forecast comes about three weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2020 California Almond Acreage Report, which estimated total almond acreage for 2020 at 1.6 million acres, up 5.3 percent from 2019. Bearing acres – orchards mature enough to produce a crop – were reported at 1.25 million acres, up 5.9 percent from the previous year. USDA-NASS also estimated preliminary bearing acreage for 2021 at 1.33 million acres.

    “What we’re seeing with this report is a forecasted continuance of high yields,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “Water availability will be the principal concern on growers’ minds as they continue to grow this crop. We look forward to the outcome of the Objective Report to see if it corroborates this estimate.” 

    The first of two production reports for the upcoming crop year, the Subjective Forecast is based on opinions from a phone survey of randomly selected almond growers located throughout the state. It was conducted from April 19 to May 6. USDA-NASS asks individual growers their total almond yield per acre from last year and their expected yield for the current year based on field observations. 

    The sample of growers interviewed is grouped by size of operation, and different people are surveyed each year to ensure grower representation throughout the Central Valley. USDA-NASS combines all the yield estimates and extrapolates the numbers reported in the Subjective Forecast.

    In July, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2021 California Almond Objective Report. While the Subjective Forecast provides an initial 2021/2022 crop estimate, the Objective Report will provide an estimate based on actual almond counts using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    The 2021 California Almond Objective Report will be released on Monday, July 12, at 9:00 a.m. PT. USDA-NASS produces the Objective Report, the Subjective Forecast and the Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions, and thanks all farm operators, owners and management entities for their time in providing the information necessary to create these reports.

  • CA Almond Acreage Continues on the Rise

    The Almond Board of California (ABC) is releasing two California almond industry acreage reports: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) 2020 California Almond Acreage Report including the 2021 preliminary bearing acreage, and Land IQ’s 2021 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate (bearing acres, only). These reports are being issued side by side to improve industry reporting methods and provide a more robust picture of California’s almond acreage.

    USDA-NASS reports a continued increase in California’s almond acreage in 2020. Bearing acres, or orchards that have matured enough to produce a crop, are estimated at 1.25 million acres, up 5.9 percent from 2019. Total almond acreage, including non-bearing trees, is estimated at 1.6 million, up 5.3 percent from the previous year.  Nonpareil continued to be the leading variety, followed by Monterey, Butte, Carmel, and Padre.

    Land IQ’s initial estimate for total bearing acreage in 2021 – which reflects standing acreage that will be productive during the 2021/2022 harvest – is 1,323,722 acres.  This estimate takes into account both young orchards coming into production and orchards removed or estimated to be removed.

    “California almond bearing and non-bearing acreage continues to increase indicating almond production will also rise in coming years. Demand has consistently been very strong during this crop year with global shipments YTD (August 2020 – March 2021) up 17.7%, as production crossed the 3 billion pound threshold for the first time,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board.

    All export regions of the world have reported strong numbers, with shipments to China/Hong Kong up 59% year to date (YTD), South Korea up 45% YTD, India up 51% YTD, and Western Europe up 12% YTD, as compared to a year ago.

    USDA-NASS’s acreage report is the first of three annual reports, including the Subjective Estimate released in May and Objective Report in July. These reports are commissioned by the Almond Board to provide statistical transparency to industry stakeholders around the world.

    Each USDA-NASS California Almond Acreage Report includes estimates on bearing, non-bearing and total acreage, in addition to data organized by variety, year planted and county. A major source of data for this survey is almond growers’ voluntary responses to mailed questionnaires distributed by USDA-NASS, with consecutive telephone and field follow-up. To arrive at the estimated almond acreage, USDA-NASS compares its almond acreage database with the 2017 Census of Agriculture, pesticide application data maintained by County Agricultural Commissioners and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation, in addition to data collected on the 2020 Almond Nursery Sales Report, which this year USDA-NASS released in conjunction with the California Almond Acreage Report, and Land IQ assessment.

    In 2018, ABC first commissioned Land IQ, a Sacramento-based agricultural and environmental scientific research and consulting firm, to develop a comprehensive, living map of California almonds. The map is the result of nearly a decade of research, and because Land IQ’s approach does not rely on surveys or extrapolation, it has an accuracy of 98% or greater. Beginning in 2019, ABC began a mapping process with Land IQ in which two acreage estimates will be released annually: the initial estimate of bearing acreage in the spring and the final estimate, with both bearing and non-bearing acreage for the same production year, delivered in the fall. In addition to the acreage estimates, Land IQ will annually produce an estimate of removed acreage.

    This year, Land IQ’s spatial analysis shows that between September 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021, 44,303 acres were removed and estimates that an additional 3,500 acres will be removed from April 1 to August 31, 2021, for a total estimate of 47,803 acres removed.

    Starting in 2020, Land IQ annually provided its initial estimate to USDA-NASS to fine-tune the official California Almond Acreage Report and other forecasts. The USDA-NASS reports and estimates remain the official Almond Board statistics provided for the California almond industry.

    On Wednesday, May 12, 2021, USDA-NASS will release the 2021 Subjective Estimate, which provides an initial forecast of the upcoming crop. Data within the Subjective Estimate is based on opinions obtained from almond growers in a survey sent by USDA-NASS. Almond growers will soon receive the USDA-NASS survey and are encouraged to participate. On Monday, July 12, 2021, USDA-NASS will release the 2021 Objective Report. This report collects data later in the growing season, closer to harvest, and is based on an actual count of nuts on the trees. — Almond Board of California

  • California Walnut Industry Gears Up To Market Record Crop

    On August 28, USDA NASS released the Objective Measurement of the 2020 walnut crop at 780,000 short tons, an increase of 19% over the prior year. “The industry has been expecting increases given continued growth in new acreage, more densely planted orchards, and heavier yielding varieties and has planned accordingly,” stated grower Robert Driver, California Walnut Commission (CWC) Chairperson. “Demand creation for future crop utilization has been years in the making, with the industry’s strategic plan focused on growing sales in the U.S. domestic market and internationally.”

    To take advantage of the large crop and continued demand, a tremendous growth opportunity exists in the U.S. market to expand all sectors of the walnut business across retail, food manufacturing/industrial and foodservice. “We have been planning for these larger crops by expanding consumption through all sectors,” said Michelle Connelly, Executive Director/CEO of the California Walnut Board and Commission (CWB/CWC). “Despite what you might think, per capita consumption of walnuts is only 0.6 pounds per year in the U.S., leaving an exceptional opportunity to further develop consumers’ love of walnuts.”

    Efforts are underway to expand grocery retail presence through two national promotional campaigns, which include a program focused on growing the snacking segment. “While walnuts are not often thought of as a snack, our consumers are telling us otherwise with snacking becoming our top consumer use,” said Jennifer Olmstead, Marketing Director, Domestic PR at CWB/CWC. “Our goal is to make walnuts top-of-mind, not only for consumers, but for food manufacturers and foodservice as well. Not only are walnuts a versatile ingredient that can’t be overlooked, they are a powerhouse of nutrition – offering essential ALA omega-3 (2.5 g/oz.) and plant-based protein (4 g/oz.) – with benefits that are critical to consumers who are seeking healthy, clean, nutritious foods now more than ever.”

    The domestic market offers advantages to the industry: proximity, stability and risk prevention from some of the turbulent times that recent tariff issues have created. However, the industry’s export markets remain vital to the industry’s growth strategy, accounting for more than 60% of annual shipment volumes. The industry has continued to adapt to tariff market challenges, while pursuing new markets for walnuts. Export market diversification has been key to this strategy, and continuing to find and develop export markets is essential.

    “We know we can further diversify the segments of business – similar to the U.S. with growth in food manufacturing and foodservice – while propping up our retail channel. Interestingly, COVID-19 has actually helped increase sales in the retail segment. Retailers and consumers increasingly embrace e-commerce, opening new avenues for retail promotion, while also bolstering the importance of neighborhood grocery, in many countries like Spain and India,” said grower Todd Ramos, CWC Market Development Committee Chairperson.

    Core export markets in Europe and Asia remain critical to the industry and, despite their once-perceived mature status, present excellent opportunity. “But we aren’t stopping there,” stated Pamela Graviet, CWC Senior Marketing Director, International. “With expanded programs in the Middle East, the industry has identified untapped potential among markets that traditionally heavily consume nuts and dried fruits. Global population projections predict that 30% of the world’s population by 2050 will be new mouths to feed; therefore, market research will continue to identify opportunity in new and established markets.”

    To encourage handler investment to grow the walnut market through individual marketing activities, the industry pursued credit-back authority through a marketing order. “We know that the development of new walnut applications is critical to our expansion of the walnut market, and handlers are already making investments, but this program is poised to take that to the next level,” stated grower William (Bill) Tos, CWC Executive Committee Chairperson. The program authority, if approved by a vote of the growers, would come into effect this 2020/21 season.

    At a time when consumers globally are seeking healthy foods more than ever, walnuts offer a multitude of benefits further demonstrated by nutrition research. “Thirty years of research has established walnuts’ heart health benefits and more. But as with all things, the evolution of science is changing rapidly, and that change is also driven by what is important to consumers – gut health, sleep quality, mental health and obesity. Our health research program continues to identify how walnuts can play a role in these important consumer public health issues, while offering a simple, convenient way to potentially improve overall health,” stated Jack Mariani, CWB Market Development Committee Chairperson.

    Investment in production research remains foundational to helping growers produce a better crop, protect against disease and improve orchard management practices, ultimately enhancing the sustainability of the industry. Post-harvest research continues to identify potentially exciting means to improve shelf life, best practices to help manufacturers incorporate more walnuts, by-product utilization and food safety.

    “Our objective has been and continues to be to keep demand ahead of supply. The industry’s investment, careful planning and foresight have set the stage for continued success,” Tos went on to say. Walnut production has doubled in the last 15 years, with new acreage reaching 380,000 with an additional 75,000 acres set to come into production. California walnut growers’ investment in the future will allow more consumers worldwide to enjoy the benefits of consuming walnuts.

  • Almond Objective Forecast Shared at Hilltop Ranch Luncheon

    The California Almond Objective Forecast for the 2018 crop year was released just after the Fourth of July at 2.45 billion pounds. Growers listened in on the broadcasted announcement as they enjoyed a nice lunch at Hilltop Ranch in Ballico, CA. Watch this brief interview with the Long family at Hilltop Ranch and read more about it in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.