Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: NASS Almond Forecast

  • USDA Forecasts Lowest CA Almond Crop Per Acre Since 2005

    The 2023 California Almond Subjective Forecast published Friday by the U. S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2023 will come in at 2.50 billion pounds, 3 percent below last year’s 2.57 billion pounds.

    Richard Waycott, President & CEO, Almond Board of California

    Forecasted yield is 1,810 pounds per acre, down 90 pounds from 2022 and the lowest since 2005. “A lower crop estimate was not unexpected considering all that growers dealt with last year and during this year’s bloom,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “The cold, wet weather kept bees in their hives and reduced the hours they could pollinate orchards. In the past three years, growers have faced high costs, shipping issues, drought and more. But the water picture is better, at least for this year, shipping continues at record levels and global demand continues to grow. California’s almond farmers are prepared to meet that global demand.”

    The report said: “Record rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions impacted pollination. Limited bee flight hours were reported in all growing regions. There were reports of downed trees due to high winds and oversaturated soil. Yields are expected to be the lowest in years, with variation observed across varieties and orchard locations. Colder than normal temperatures continued through March and April, resulting in a delayed crop.”

    The Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 6 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 7, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2023 California Almond Objective Report, which is based on actual almond counts in nearly 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2022 California Almond Acreage Report which found total almond acreage had dropped in 2022 to 1.63 million, 1.2 percent down from 1.65 million in 2021. It also estimated 1.38 million bearing acres in 2023, up from 2022’s estimate of 1.35 million bearing acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

  • Larger CA Almond Crop Forecasted This Year

    Almond Board of California — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting an increase in the California almond crop. The USDA-NASS 2021 California Almond Subjective Forecast estimates California almond orchards will produce 3.2 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 3 percent from last year’s 3.12 billion-pound crop. Forecasted yield is expected to reach 2,410 pounds per acre, 3 percent lower than the 2020 yield of 2,490 per acre.

    This forecast comes about three weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2020 California Almond Acreage Report, which estimated total almond acreage for 2020 at 1.6 million acres, up 5.3 percent from 2019. Bearing acres – orchards mature enough to produce a crop – were reported at 1.25 million acres, up 5.9 percent from the previous year. USDA-NASS also estimated preliminary bearing acreage for 2021 at 1.33 million acres.

    “What we’re seeing with this report is a forecasted continuance of high yields,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “Water availability will be the principal concern on growers’ minds as they continue to grow this crop. We look forward to the outcome of the Objective Report to see if it corroborates this estimate.” 

    The first of two production reports for the upcoming crop year, the Subjective Forecast is based on opinions from a phone survey of randomly selected almond growers located throughout the state. It was conducted from April 19 to May 6. USDA-NASS asks individual growers their total almond yield per acre from last year and their expected yield for the current year based on field observations. 

    The sample of growers interviewed is grouped by size of operation, and different people are surveyed each year to ensure grower representation throughout the Central Valley. USDA-NASS combines all the yield estimates and extrapolates the numbers reported in the Subjective Forecast.

    In July, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2021 California Almond Objective Report. While the Subjective Forecast provides an initial 2021/2022 crop estimate, the Objective Report will provide an estimate based on actual almond counts using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    The 2021 California Almond Objective Report will be released on Monday, July 12, at 9:00 a.m. PT. USDA-NASS produces the Objective Report, the Subjective Forecast and the Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions, and thanks all farm operators, owners and management entities for their time in providing the information necessary to create these reports.

  • USDA-NASS Predicts Third Straight Record-Breaking Almond Crop

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting a record California almond crop for the third straight year. The USDA-NASS 2020 California Almond Subjective Forecast estimates California almond orchards will produce 3.0 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 17.6 percent from last year’s 2.55 billion-pound crop. Forecasted yield is expected to reach 2,380 pounds per acre, 10.2 percent greater than the 2019 yield of 2,160 per acre.

    This forecast comes about three weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2019 California Almond Acreage Report, which estimated total almond acreage for 2019 up 10 percent from 2018 at 1.53 million acres. Bearing acres – orchards mature enough to produce a crop – were reported at 1.18 million acres, up 8 percent from the previous year. USDA-NASS also estimated preliminary bearing acreage for 2020 at 1.26 million acres.

    “Almond acreage and production continue to increase as California almond growers further invest in precision agriculture and responsible best practices,” said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO Richard Waycott. “Through the industry’s advancements in water use efficiency to environmentally friendly pest management, zero waste efforts in the orchard and beyond, almond growers are committed to achieving our Almond Orchard 2025 Goals and the realization of the California almond orchard of the future.”

    The first of two production reports for the upcoming crop year, the Subjective Forecast is based on opinions obtained from randomly selected almond growers located throughout the state via a phone survey, this year conducted from April 20 to May 6. USDA-NASS asks individual growers to indicate their total almond yield per acre from last year and expected yield for the current year based on field observations. The sample of growers interviewed is grouped by size of operation, and different individuals are interviewed each year to ensure grower representation throughout the Central Valley. USDA-NASS then combines the yield estimates obtained from each grower and extrapolates the information to arrive at the numbers reported in the Subjective Forecast.

    This July, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2020 California Almond Objective Report. While the Subjective Forecast provides an initial estimate of the 2020/2021 crop, the Objective Report will provide an estimate based on actual almond counts that uses a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield. In Dec. 2019, ABC’s Board of Directors approved a strategic approach to further improve the accuracy of USDA-NASS’s reporting. From 2020 on, the Objective Report will include measurements from 1,000 target orchards throughout the state (an increase of 150 samples from 2019) and provide nut counts on not one but two branches per tree. The Objective Report will also provide the weight, size and grade of the average almond sample broken down by growing region – no longer growing district – and variety.

    The 2020 California Almond Objective Report will be released on Tuesday, July 7, at 12:00 p.m. PT. USDA-NASS conducts the Objective Report, the Subjective Forecast and the Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions, and thanks all farm operators, owners and management entities for their time in providing the information necessary to create these reports. — Article & Photo Courtesy of Almond Board of California

  • California Almond Acreage Increases in 2018

    USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports that California’s almond acreage continued to increase in 2018. Bearing acres, or orchards that have matured enough to produce a crop, are reported at 1.09 million acres, which is up 6 percent from 2017. Total almond acres for 2018 is estimated at 1.39 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous year.

    Almond-Acreage-Increase-PNP

    With this increase, almond growers remain committed to continuous improvement, finding ways to responsibly produce more almonds to meet global and domestic demand (30% of total shipments of California almonds are shipped domestic). Last year, the Almond Board of California (ABC) Board of Directors prioritized industry resources in four key areas that will ensure almonds remain as leaders in California agriculture as they work towards producing an economically, environmentally and socially responsible crop. These four key areas – water use, harvest dust reduction, environmentally friendly pest management, zero waste – ladder up to the Almond Orchard 2025 Goals, whichbuild upon a history of significant industry achievements. For example, over the past two decades growers have reduced the amount of water it takes to grow a pound of almonds by 33%.

    In addition to achievements in the orchard, on the processing side there have been zero outbreaks of foodborne illness attributed to California almonds since the rollout of a groundbreaking pasteurization program a decade ago. In fact, earlier this month the Almond Board was selected to receive the GMA Food Safety Award from the International Association for Food Protection, in recognition of the Board’s “preeminence in and contributions to the field of food safety.”

    “The California almond industry continues to prove itself as a leader in responsible practices, from the orchard to the processor,” said Almond Board President and CEO Richard Waycott. “The Almond Orchard 2025 Goals act as a guidepost on our journey towards continued advancement and innovation throughout the industry. With the latest acreage numbers, we’re confident in our ability to continue to meet global demand and to provide the world with a high-quality product.”

    On Friday, May 10, 2019, NASS will release the 2019 Subjective Report, which provides an initial forecast of the upcoming crop. Data for the Subjective Report is based on opinions obtained from almond growers in a survey sent by NASS. Almond growers will soon receive the NASS survey and are encouraged to participate. For more information, growers may contact Bryce Spycher at bspycher@almondboard.com.

    About the Almond Board of California

    California Almonds make life better by what we grow and how we grow. The Almond Board of California promotes natural, wholesome and quality almonds through leadership in strategic market development, innovative research, and accelerated adoption of industry best practices on behalf of the more than 6,800 almond farmers and processors in California, most of whom are multi-generational family operations. Established in 1950 and based in Modesto, California, the Almond Board of California is a non-profit organization that administers a grower-enacted Federal Marketing Order under the supervision of the United States Department of Agriculture. For more information on the Almond Board of California or almonds, visit Almonds.com or check out California Almonds on Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, Instagram and the California Almonds blog.

    Almond Acreage Increase Chart PNP

  • USDA Estimates Record-Breaking 2018 Almond Crop

    Forecast estimated at 2.45 billion pounds for the 2018 California almond crop

    MODESTO, Calif. – Despite concerns earlier in the year about freezing weather during almond bloom, careful management by California farmers and newer orchards coming into production have resulted in a record-breaking crop according to the 2018 Almond Objective Measurement Report. This confirms earlier predictions from the 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast released in May.

    Published today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service – Pacific Regional Office (NASS/PRO), the Objective Report is the official industry crop estimate. The report finds that the 2018 crop estimate is up 7.9% from the 2017 crop production of 2.27 billion pounds.

    “2018 looks to be a milestone year for California almonds with over one million almond-bearing acres now in California,” said Holly King, chair, Almond Board of California (ABC) and Kern County almond grower. “However, it is not just about the number of acres, it’s also about growing more almonds per acre. As we have grown in size, we have continued to find ways to grow almonds more efficiently, using fewer resources and leaving a smaller footprint per nut.”

    The California almond community, through ABC, has invested nearly $70 million over more than 40 years to build a foundation of research on improving how almonds are grown, processed and consumed. This culture of continuous improvement brings benefits to local communities and the environment while helping farmers be responsible stewards of the land.

    Today’s Objective Report follows the Subjective Forecast, which provides an early estimate of the coming crop after it has set on the trees. The Objective Report collects data later in the growing season, closer to harvest, and is based on an actual count of nuts on the trees. This year’s Objective Report projects an almond crop up 6.5% from the May forecast of 2.30 billion pounds.

    “California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who produce more than 80 percent of the world’s supply,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, ABC. “The California almond community continues to meet the steadily growing demand for almonds, supporting healthy and diverse diets around the globe.”

    Per the Objective Report, the average nut set per tree is 5,677, down 0.6% from the 2017 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set is 4,924, down 13.9% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.54 grams, down 1.9% compared to the 2017 average weight of 1.57 grams.

    For More Information:

    Ashley Bloemhof

    (209) 531-7628

    abloemhof@almondboard.com