Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: California Almond Forecast

  • USDA Forecasts Lowest CA Almond Crop Per Acre Since 2005

    The 2023 California Almond Subjective Forecast published Friday by the U. S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2023 will come in at 2.50 billion pounds, 3 percent below last year’s 2.57 billion pounds.

    Richard Waycott, President & CEO, Almond Board of California

    Forecasted yield is 1,810 pounds per acre, down 90 pounds from 2022 and the lowest since 2005. “A lower crop estimate was not unexpected considering all that growers dealt with last year and during this year’s bloom,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “The cold, wet weather kept bees in their hives and reduced the hours they could pollinate orchards. In the past three years, growers have faced high costs, shipping issues, drought and more. But the water picture is better, at least for this year, shipping continues at record levels and global demand continues to grow. California’s almond farmers are prepared to meet that global demand.”

    The report said: “Record rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions impacted pollination. Limited bee flight hours were reported in all growing regions. There were reports of downed trees due to high winds and oversaturated soil. Yields are expected to be the lowest in years, with variation observed across varieties and orchard locations. Colder than normal temperatures continued through March and April, resulting in a delayed crop.”

    The Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 6 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 7, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2023 California Almond Objective Report, which is based on actual almond counts in nearly 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2022 California Almond Acreage Report which found total almond acreage had dropped in 2022 to 1.63 million, 1.2 percent down from 1.65 million in 2021. It also estimated 1.38 million bearing acres in 2023, up from 2022’s estimate of 1.35 million bearing acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

  • Larger CA Almond Crop Forecasted This Year

    Almond Board of California — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting an increase in the California almond crop. The USDA-NASS 2021 California Almond Subjective Forecast estimates California almond orchards will produce 3.2 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 3 percent from last year’s 3.12 billion-pound crop. Forecasted yield is expected to reach 2,410 pounds per acre, 3 percent lower than the 2020 yield of 2,490 per acre.

    This forecast comes about three weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2020 California Almond Acreage Report, which estimated total almond acreage for 2020 at 1.6 million acres, up 5.3 percent from 2019. Bearing acres – orchards mature enough to produce a crop – were reported at 1.25 million acres, up 5.9 percent from the previous year. USDA-NASS also estimated preliminary bearing acreage for 2021 at 1.33 million acres.

    “What we’re seeing with this report is a forecasted continuance of high yields,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “Water availability will be the principal concern on growers’ minds as they continue to grow this crop. We look forward to the outcome of the Objective Report to see if it corroborates this estimate.” 

    The first of two production reports for the upcoming crop year, the Subjective Forecast is based on opinions from a phone survey of randomly selected almond growers located throughout the state. It was conducted from April 19 to May 6. USDA-NASS asks individual growers their total almond yield per acre from last year and their expected yield for the current year based on field observations. 

    The sample of growers interviewed is grouped by size of operation, and different people are surveyed each year to ensure grower representation throughout the Central Valley. USDA-NASS combines all the yield estimates and extrapolates the numbers reported in the Subjective Forecast.

    In July, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2021 California Almond Objective Report. While the Subjective Forecast provides an initial 2021/2022 crop estimate, the Objective Report will provide an estimate based on actual almond counts using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    The 2021 California Almond Objective Report will be released on Monday, July 12, at 9:00 a.m. PT. USDA-NASS produces the Objective Report, the Subjective Forecast and the Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions, and thanks all farm operators, owners and management entities for their time in providing the information necessary to create these reports.

  • Ganoderma: Why Are My Almond Trees Falling Over?

    Almond trees are collapsing all over the California, and it’s not just an old age thing anymore. If you are experiencing this in your orchard, your trees may have Ganoderma Heart Rot. Watch this brief interview with UCCE Nut Crops Advisor Mae Culumber as she explains, based on her recent presentation at the Grape, Nut & Tree Fruit Expo.

    Please thank this video’s sponsor Trece for their industry support.

  • Protecting your Almonds from Ant Damage

    Almonds sat on the ground to dry a little longer this season due to the abnormal drop in temperatures and increase in humidity at harvest. This provided a longer window of opportunity for ants to feast on the valuable product.  Regardless of what the future brings, there will always be ants in the orchard and now would be a good time to freshen up your knowledge on how to manage them in the orchard. Watch this interview with UC IPM Advisor Kris Tollerup and don’t miss his upcoming ant management presentation at the annual Tree & Vine Expo on November 10th.
    Please thank this video’s sponsor Suterra for their industry support.

  • New Export Opportunities for Almond Hulls

    As California almond production continues to increase, so does the amount of coproducts such as hulls and shells.  Traditionally, much of these coproducts have been sold to California dairies as cattle feed and bedding amendments; however, the increase in production has led the industry to pursue further marketing opportunities and uses for these coproducts.  Watch this brief interview with Elaine Trevino from the Almond Alliance of California as she shares some exciting news regarding export opportunities and read more about it in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.
    Please thank this video’s sponsor Suterra for their industry support.

  • Wildfire Impact on CA Almond Harvest & Crop Update

    Are California almond growers really going to reach their record 3 billion pound crop this year? How have the wildfires impacted the harvest season? What kind of pest pressure levels are growers experiencing this year? What should almond growers expect at the virtual Almond Board Conference this year?  Watch this brief interview with Richard Waycott from the Almond Board of California to find out and read more about it in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.

    Please thank this video’s sponsor Suterra for their industry support.

  • California Almond Harvest Update with Blue Diamond Growers

    California almond harvest is almost complete for the 2019 crop. Growers have enjoyed a nice harvest season with minimal pest damage, but what can we expect this year as far as crop size and quality?  Watch this brief interview with Blue Diamond Growers’ Mel Machado, and don’t miss the annual State of the Almond Industry address at the Tree & Vine Expo in Turlock on Nov. 12th and the Grape, Nut & Tree Fruit Expo in Fresno on Nov. 19th.

    Please thank our sponsor Duarte Nursery for their industry support by visiting them at their booth at the following November Events: Tree & Vine Expo, the Grape, Nut & Tree Fruit Expo & Blue Diamond Growers Annual Membership Meeting.

  • USDA Estimates Record-Breaking 2018 Almond Crop

    Forecast estimated at 2.45 billion pounds for the 2018 California almond crop

    MODESTO, Calif. – Despite concerns earlier in the year about freezing weather during almond bloom, careful management by California farmers and newer orchards coming into production have resulted in a record-breaking crop according to the 2018 Almond Objective Measurement Report. This confirms earlier predictions from the 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast released in May.

    Published today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service – Pacific Regional Office (NASS/PRO), the Objective Report is the official industry crop estimate. The report finds that the 2018 crop estimate is up 7.9% from the 2017 crop production of 2.27 billion pounds.

    “2018 looks to be a milestone year for California almonds with over one million almond-bearing acres now in California,” said Holly King, chair, Almond Board of California (ABC) and Kern County almond grower. “However, it is not just about the number of acres, it’s also about growing more almonds per acre. As we have grown in size, we have continued to find ways to grow almonds more efficiently, using fewer resources and leaving a smaller footprint per nut.”

    The California almond community, through ABC, has invested nearly $70 million over more than 40 years to build a foundation of research on improving how almonds are grown, processed and consumed. This culture of continuous improvement brings benefits to local communities and the environment while helping farmers be responsible stewards of the land.

    Today’s Objective Report follows the Subjective Forecast, which provides an early estimate of the coming crop after it has set on the trees. The Objective Report collects data later in the growing season, closer to harvest, and is based on an actual count of nuts on the trees. This year’s Objective Report projects an almond crop up 6.5% from the May forecast of 2.30 billion pounds.

    “California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who produce more than 80 percent of the world’s supply,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, ABC. “The California almond community continues to meet the steadily growing demand for almonds, supporting healthy and diverse diets around the globe.”

    Per the Objective Report, the average nut set per tree is 5,677, down 0.6% from the 2017 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set is 4,924, down 13.9% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.54 grams, down 1.9% compared to the 2017 average weight of 1.57 grams.

    For More Information:

    Ashley Bloemhof

    (209) 531-7628

    abloemhof@almondboard.com