Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: Almond Subjective Forecast

  • USDA Forecasts Lowest CA Almond Crop Per Acre Since 2005

    The 2023 California Almond Subjective Forecast published Friday by the U. S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2023 will come in at 2.50 billion pounds, 3 percent below last year’s 2.57 billion pounds.

    Richard Waycott, President & CEO, Almond Board of California

    Forecasted yield is 1,810 pounds per acre, down 90 pounds from 2022 and the lowest since 2005. “A lower crop estimate was not unexpected considering all that growers dealt with last year and during this year’s bloom,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “The cold, wet weather kept bees in their hives and reduced the hours they could pollinate orchards. In the past three years, growers have faced high costs, shipping issues, drought and more. But the water picture is better, at least for this year, shipping continues at record levels and global demand continues to grow. California’s almond farmers are prepared to meet that global demand.”

    The report said: “Record rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions impacted pollination. Limited bee flight hours were reported in all growing regions. There were reports of downed trees due to high winds and oversaturated soil. Yields are expected to be the lowest in years, with variation observed across varieties and orchard locations. Colder than normal temperatures continued through March and April, resulting in a delayed crop.”

    The Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 6 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 7, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2023 California Almond Objective Report, which is based on actual almond counts in nearly 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2022 California Almond Acreage Report which found total almond acreage had dropped in 2022 to 1.63 million, 1.2 percent down from 1.65 million in 2021. It also estimated 1.38 million bearing acres in 2023, up from 2022’s estimate of 1.35 million bearing acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

  • Record-Breaking Almond Crop Predicted for 2018

    In spite of concerns about freezing weather during almond bloom, the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting a record crop in 2018. According to the NASS 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast issued today, California almond orchards are expected to produce 2.30 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 1.3% from last year’s 2.27 billion-pound crop.[1]

    Karen Barindelli observes a solid 2018 almond crop in her Modesto orchard

    “Almond farmers used a variety of techniques to manage freezing nighttime temperatures in some parts of the Central Valley during bloom this year and those efforts appear to have worked,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, Almond Board of California. “Every year weather impacts farming, but almond trees thrive in our state because California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who continually improve their practices and rise to the challenge.”

    The Almond Subjective Forecast, the first of two California almond forecast reports for this year’s crop, is based on opinions obtained from randomly selected almond farmers located throughout the state via a phone survey conducted in April and May. Farmers were asked to indicate their almond yield per acre from last year and expected yield for the current year based on field observations. Those estimates are then combined and extrapolated to arrive at the numbers reported in the Almond Subjective Forecast.

    While the Almond Subjective Forecast provides early estimates of the coming crop after it is set, the 2018 California Almond Objective Report, which is released in July, uses a more statistically rigorous methodology. It is typically the more accurate of the two reports. Objective Report data is based on actual almond counts and measurements taken in orchards throughout the state, starting in May and ending in July.

    The Objective Report will be released July 5, 2018, at noon PDT. Both the report and the forecast are conducted by the USDA and funded by the Almond Board of California to provide almond farmers, processors and shippers with estimates to help them make business decisions.

    Last month, the 2017 California Almond Acreage Report showed bearing acres, that is orchards old enough to produce a crop, were up 6% at 1 million acres. Total almond acres for 2017 were estimated at 1.33 million acres, up 7% from the previous year.

    Almond acreage in California continues to experience significant increases.

    [1] USDA-NASS. 2018 California Almond Subjective Forecast. May 2018.