Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: Almond Forecast

  • USDA Releases 2026 Almond Harvest Forecast

    The 2026 California Almond Forecast, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2026 will come in at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year. Forecasted yield is 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous season.

    “According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year. This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months,” said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO, Clarice Turner. “While this may signal tighter supply, California remains the world’s leading almond supplier, and ABC is focused on expanding global demand. Despite higher costs, regulatory pressures, and supply chain challenges, California almond farmers continue to deliver a reliable, high-quality crop.”

    As of December 2025, the ABC Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.

    This Subjective Forecast will be the only report from NASS for the coming crop year. The estimate is based on opinions from a survey of around 500 growers conducted from April 21 to May 6. The sample of growers was selected at random and were grouped by size of operation to ensure all growers were proportionally represented. Respondents had the option to report their data by mail, phone or online.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California decreased by 15,227 acres from the previous year to 1,385,870 million bearing acres.

    NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.

    — Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California

  • High Heat Could Lead to Early Almond Harvest

    High early heat could result in a smaller nut set for almonds, though some larger hulls are being found. Meanwhile, orchards enjoyed a good bloom and growers may expect to harvest as early as July. Bountiful.ag Founder and CEO Megan Nunes spoke with Matthew Malcolm from California Ag Network about these findings in their first almond crop forecast of the 2026 season. Watch this video and learn more in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.

  • Five-Year Almond Forecast Bright with Stronger Prices

    The future looks bright for the California almond industry with the release of a special five-year almond economic forecast. In an interview with Matthew Malcolm on California Ag Network during the Almond Conference in Sacramento, Roland Fumasi from RaboResearch at Rabobank discussed their five-year almond outlook and what growers can expect in the coming seasons. Watch this brief interview and read more about it in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.

  • USDA Forecasts Slightly Larger Almond Crop

    Almond Board of California — The 2025 California Almond Subjective Forecast, published May 12 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2025 will come in at 2.8 billion pounds, 3 percent above last year’s 2.73 billion pounds.

    Forecasted yield is 2,010 pounds per acre, up 30 pounds from the 2024 harvest.

    “This larger crop estimate is what the industry expected after a solid water winter and generally good weather during bloom, but it’s also a testament to the hard work done by almond farmers throughout California,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Demand for California almonds around the globe continues to grow and our almond farmers constantly deliver, producing high quality California almonds to meet that demand.”

    The report shared that the 2025 almond bloom began the first week of February in the Sacramento Valley and peaked during the middle of the month. The weather during bloom varied throughout the state, with storms bringing heavy rainfall, wind and hail. Crop development in the San Joaquin Valley was slower than normal due to cool temperatures and lower bee flight hours. However, conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures accelerating the crop’s progress through the end of bloom.

    There were also reports of significantly lower yields in the Nonpareil variety due to an overall lighter flower set than their pollinators. The impact on orchards from the intense summer heat in 2024 continues to be assessed. Growers are actively irrigating, fertilizing and treating their orchards for pests and diseases. Water is not expected to be an issue this year.

    This Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 21 to May 7 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 10, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2025 California Almond Objective Report, which will be based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2025 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California has slightly increased about 6,000 acres from the previous year to 1.389 million bearing acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast and Objective Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

  • Almond Market Concerns Loom, and Not Just Retaliatory Tariffs

    Just as the market for California almonds was beginning to look brighter, concerns for the impact of retaliatory tariffs under President Trump 2.0 have brought a lot of uncertainty to growers that rely so heavily on a healthy export market. Roland Fumasi, the North American Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness met with Matthew Malcolm on California Ag Network to share Rabobank’s almond market forecast and an additional concern just as threatening to the near-term success of the industry as the looming retaliatory tariffs. Watch this brief interview and learn more in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.

  • Almond Prices Expected to Rise in 2024, Setting Stage for a Positive 5-Year Forecast

    The next five years appear to be much brighter for the California almond industry than the last couple years of depressed market conditions, according to a recent RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness report.  Prices are expected to rise this season, but how much, and how soon will they climb to profitable levels? Pacific Nut Producer Editor Matthew Malcolm spoke with Roland Fumasi from Rabobank to find out. Watch this brief interview and learn more in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.

  • Almond Growers Anticipate Solid Crop Following Successful Bloom

    Despite some early spring rainstorms, the 2024 California almond crop is off to a great start after what turned out to be a very successful bloom. Watch this brief video as Pacific Nut Producer Editor Matthew Malcolm discusses this with agricultural data analyst Megan Nunes, CEO of Bountiful.