Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: Almond Crop Forecast

  • 2026 USDA-NASS Subjective Forecast Format Changes

    When USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA‑NASS) releases the annual California Almond Subjective Forecast on May 12, growers may notice the report doesn’t look exactly like it has in the past. The difference is tied to a broader USDA‑NASS publication change — not to any change requested or directed by the Almond Board of California (ABC).

    For decades, growers, handlers, and other stakeholders have used the Subjective Forecast as a consistent early-season reference point. Because many people know where to look for key figures and comparisons, even small shifts in layout can slow down that first read. While the report’s presentation may change, the industry’s need is the same: quickly locating the data points that support planning and market conversations.

    Last year, USDA‑NASS has released a statement saying: “NASS will no longer generate publications tailored specifically to individual states or regions. There is no impact on state-level data as it will continue to be available in the national releases and through NASS’s public online database, Quick Stats. All NASS reports are available to the public at www.nass.usda.gov.”

    For almonds, that means the Subjective Forecast may be packaged differently than the California-specific publication many are used to, however the survey methodology remains unchanged, and the California data will still exist within national releases and in Quick Stats.

    To make the updated format easier to navigate, ABC will provide a brief cover letter when sharing the Subjective Forecast. The cover letter will act as a reader’s guide to point to where commonly referenced items appear and help industry members locate the information they are accustomed to seeing in the Subjective Forecast.

    As an additional reminder, the Subjective Forecast will be the only yield-related report released by USDA this year. In December of 2025, ABC’s Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA‑NASS Objective Estimate that has typically been released in early July.

    ABC will share the Subjective Forecast as soon as it is released on May 12 and include the cover letter to help industry members orient quickly. If you have questions once the report is available, please contact ABC staff.

    — Story contributed by Almond Board of California

  • Record-Breaking Almond Crop Predicted for 2018

    In spite of concerns about freezing weather during almond bloom, the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting a record crop in 2018. According to the NASS 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast issued today, California almond orchards are expected to produce 2.30 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 1.3% from last year’s 2.27 billion-pound crop.[1]

    Karen Barindelli observes a solid 2018 almond crop in her Modesto orchard

    “Almond farmers used a variety of techniques to manage freezing nighttime temperatures in some parts of the Central Valley during bloom this year and those efforts appear to have worked,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, Almond Board of California. “Every year weather impacts farming, but almond trees thrive in our state because California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who continually improve their practices and rise to the challenge.”

    The Almond Subjective Forecast, the first of two California almond forecast reports for this year’s crop, is based on opinions obtained from randomly selected almond farmers located throughout the state via a phone survey conducted in April and May. Farmers were asked to indicate their almond yield per acre from last year and expected yield for the current year based on field observations. Those estimates are then combined and extrapolated to arrive at the numbers reported in the Almond Subjective Forecast.

    While the Almond Subjective Forecast provides early estimates of the coming crop after it is set, the 2018 California Almond Objective Report, which is released in July, uses a more statistically rigorous methodology. It is typically the more accurate of the two reports. Objective Report data is based on actual almond counts and measurements taken in orchards throughout the state, starting in May and ending in July.

    The Objective Report will be released July 5, 2018, at noon PDT. Both the report and the forecast are conducted by the USDA and funded by the Almond Board of California to provide almond farmers, processors and shippers with estimates to help them make business decisions.

    Last month, the 2017 California Almond Acreage Report showed bearing acres, that is orchards old enough to produce a crop, were up 6% at 1 million acres. Total almond acres for 2017 were estimated at 1.33 million acres, up 7% from the previous year.

    Almond acreage in California continues to experience significant increases.

    [1] USDA-NASS. 2018 California Almond Subjective Forecast. May 2018.