Pacific Nut Producer Magazine

Tag: Almond Crop Estimate

  • Blue Diamond Almond Crop Estimate Revised to 2.6B Pounds

    Since releasing our initial May 2026 estimate, Blue Diamond Growers has continued to monitor orchard conditions across all growing regions. The company’s observations continue to indicate a crop size in the range of 2.65 to 2.7 billion pounds. Their initial estimate had an upper range of 2.72 billion pounds, which they now believe peaks at 2.70 billion pounds because of growing downward pressure on crop potential, suggesting a slightly lower midpoint of 2.67 billion pounds. As it remains early in the season, the range indicates both downside risk and variability of the 2026 crop.

    Over the past several weeks, in‑field managers have continued to survey orchards across the valley, noting additional observations related to nut progression, irrigation patterns, and early-season stress indicators. These insights, combined with updated grower feedback — they said — reinforce their assessment.

    Key factors informing this follow‑up include:

    • Continued orchard‑to‑orchard evaluations and comparisons to identify variations in quality and crop performance
    • Updated monthly grower survey responses reflecting expectations across season-to-date performance
    • Ongoing evaluation of economic, water, and weather pressures that may influence yield outcomes

    Blue Diamond Growers will continue to monitor crop conditions and provide updates as conditions evolve. At this stage, indicators support a modestly lower estimate, with variability driven largely by input levels.

    Crop Influences

    The 2026 almond season to date reflects a mix of moderate weather conditions and ongoing operational and economic challenges for growers. While temperatures have remained warm without any critical heat wave conditions, several factors may still impact the crop before harvest.

    Growers continue to face high production costs, resulting in measured resource management. Fertilizer and fuel costs, cash flow pressures and overall market prices have led many growers to reduce inputs. Growers have had ample water for irrigation, supporting orchards without major challenges. However, the cost of electricity required to pressurize water for irrigation remains a budgetary challenge.

    Current Crop Development Observations

    Orchard conditions are varying widely this season, shaped largely by differences in nutrition and input management.

    Lower input orchards are showing lighter crop loads and weaker conditions, while a notable number of orchards with heavier crop loads are showing signs of weak spur development. This points to fertility concerns that could carry over into next year’s crop.

    By contrast, many well-nourished orchards are showing overly vigorous growth, a potential indicator of poor crop loads. Growers and in-field teams have also reported thicker hulls and shells in several varieties, which could adversely affect turnout percentages and lead to reduced final crop weights beyond what may be apparent through pre-harvest observations.

    Forward Outlook

    Conditions will continue to evolve across the regions over the coming weeks, and the impact of crop stressors will become clearer. Ongoing monitoring will ensure that any significant changes are factored into future outlooks.

    Further insights will be shared by Blue Diamond in subsequent Market Reports, with later reports refining the forecast once harvest is underway. — Story contributed by Blue Diamond Growers

  • Blue Diamond Releases May Market Update

    April shipments from Blue Diamond Growers totaled 219.8 million pounds, within industry expectations at an 8.8% decline year over year on the heels of the last two strong shipment reports. April exports reached 167.3 million pounds, down 10.9% from prior year but continue to surpass last year’s pace by 1.3% at 1.55 billion pounds. Domestic shipments for April were mostly flat at 1.3% behind prior year. Domestic year-to-date shipments remain behind at 444 million pounds, down 14.4%. Total industry shipments through April stand at 1.99 billion pounds, down 2.7% versus last year.

    Shipments

    India: For the month of April, India imported 31.6 million pounds, a reduction from last year’s 45.9 million pounds. Compared to last year, the gap has widened to 8%. The market has taken a step back as warmer temperatures have reduced local consumption. India remains a strong player for global inshell consumption and will need to re-engage to secure inventories ahead of new crop supply.

    China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: April 2026 shipments to China/Hong Kong totaled 3.7 million pounds, marking a 110% increase compared to prior year. Shipments to Vietnam reached 4.8 million pounds, down 34% for the month and up 46% year to date. Combined shipments to these regions increased 2.65% year to date.

    Europe: Europe took a slight step back this month, with its growth rate declining year over year from 7% to 4%. The market continues to be a solid performer and reliable outlet for California almonds. Buyer mentality has not changed all year. Calculated and cautious buying activity should be expected to continue through the end of the crop year, with many beginning to shop for new crop coverage. Spain (+17%), Italy (+9%) and Germany (+4%) continue to lead the region’s growth.

    Middle East: The region continues to be hampered by the conflict with Iran. Buyers in the Persian Gulf region continue to take a wait-and-see approach with little appetite for risk. Demand is still present across the region, but logistical challenges and increased transportation costs make it difficult to take positions. Trade flows continue to evolve with new destinations now serving as trade hubs with Dubai unable to participate. Turkey continues to show strength, up 35%, while Pakistan, now up 202%, has emerged as a new throughput option to service the region’s demand. Trade will always find a way if buyers want to engage, but until a resolution is reached, the industry will continue to define a new normal over the coming weeks and months.

    Domestic: The domestic market shipped 52.6 million pounds, resulting in a decrease of 1.3%. April was the second largest shipment month of this crop year, bringing the market year-over-year decrease to 14.4%. Softer monthly sales have led to forward commitments declining by 5.2%. After a long period of steep declines, it appears the domestic market is maintaining its new monthly shipping average just shy of 50 million pounds. With forward commitments of 199 million pounds, this market is well positioned to match prior year’s final quarter shipments of approximately 152 million pounds.

    Commitments

    Total commitments currently stand at 517 million pounds, trailing last year by 1.6%. New sales for the month were subdued in anticipation of the Subjective Estimate and totaled 160.7 million pounds, down from 192.5 million last year. The domestic market secured 39.9 million pounds, while exports added 120.8 million pounds of new coverage. Total commitments for the domestic market are now at 199.6 million pounds while exports have reached 317 million pounds. With softer sales for the month, uncommitted inventory is currently up 4.2% at 605.8 million pounds versus 581.5 million pounds prior year.

    Crop

    The 2025 crop receipts are trickling in with just 4 million pounds added in April, bringing the receipts to approximately 2.69 billion pounds.

    Blue Diamond’s May 9, 2026 Crop Estimate Report projects a California almond crop ranging between 2.675 and 2.72, with a center point of 2.69 billion pounds. The overall estimate reflects a balanced but cautious outlook acknowledging weather impacts, orchard abandonments and summer conditions which determine whether the crop reaches projected potential. The Blue Diamond crop estimate is closely aligned with similar estimates by the USDA Subjective Estimate (2.7 billion pounds) and others in the industry. We will continue to share crop updates in our June Market Report and our July Crop Forecast Report to provide a more precise forecast as we progress through harvest.

  • Blue Diamond Growers Issues Almond Crop Estimate

    Blue Diamond Growers released its 2026 almond crop estimate recently at 2.69 billion pounds, falling between a total estimated range of 2.675 to 2.72 billion pounds. This estimate reflects early-season observations and data across California’s Central Valley, along with direct input from its nearly 3,000 grower-members. The report outlines the factors that inform the crop range and will guide the outlook as the season progresses.

    With the changes made to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s almond crop estimates, Blue Diamond is providing a scenario-based range intended to help stakeholders plan for the season ahead. The cooperative’s estimate is based on field-level observations, historical performance data and structured feedback gathered across varieties and counties.

    “Crop estimating is never a single-number exercise—conditions can vary dramatically by region, variety, and orchard management,” said Blue Diamond’d Chief Ag Officer Mel Machado. “By sharing a range and the inputs behind it, we aim to provide a practical, early framework that reflects what our team is seeing in the field and hearing directly from growers.”

    “Our cooperative was built to bring stability and market access for California almond farming families,” said Jeff Hatfield, chief global supply officer of Blue Diamond Growers. “Providing a clear, data-informed outlook supports better planning and helps reduce surprises that can create unnecessary volatility for growers and customers alike.”

    Blue Diamond noted that in-season conditions including heat events, pest pressure, water availability, and orchard investment decisions, can materially influence final receipts. The cooperative expects to continue sharing crop and market updates and will refine its outlook as additional information becomes available throughout the season. — Story provided by Blue Diamond Growers

  • Almond International Trade Barriers & the Biden Administration

    What is the current status of the international trade war impact on almonds and what changes can we anticipate in the foreseeable future? Watch this brief video with Julie Adams from the Almond Board of California and read more about it in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.

    Please thank this video’s sponsor Suterra for their industry support.

  • Almond Market Update Highlights New Records & Opportunities

    Despite international tariffs, port disruptions and a global pandemic, the California almond industry continues to produce and ship record-setting crops.  Watch this brief video with Richard Waycott as he shares this year’s to-date trends on shipments and what can be expected of orchard production this year.  Read more about it in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.
    Please thank this video’s sponsor Trece for their industry support.