The Bulgarian tree nut market expanded rapidly in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, and the MY 2025/26 forecast is optimistic. There was a significant boost in consumption and trade, driven by both retail sales and the confectionary industry. Decreasing food inflation, improving incomes, and strong development in tourism/travel supported consumption growth. Domestic production increased to meet dynamic demand but still had a small market share. Expectations for MY 2025/26 are for lower local supply and higher imports while consumption is projected to maintain its gradual increase. In MY 2024/25, the United States maintained its leading role as a key supplier, with double digit growth in Bulgarian imports of U.S. tree nuts to about $20 million, or a 43-percent growth over MY 2023/24 ($14 million).
However, U.S. exporters are facing increasing competition from price-competitive imports of walnuts (Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China) and of peanuts (Argentina and Nicaragua).
Overview
Bulgarian tree nut production (almonds and walnuts) is inconsistent – with regular major fluctuations in production depending on weather conditions. Harvested area is usually less than planted area as lowcyield often makes harvesting cost ineffective.
Consumer demand increased considerably in MY 2024/25, driven by lower inflation, improved income, and stronger tourism. Retail sales, especially at specialized snacks-and-nuts retail outlets, proved to be highly popular and profitable. Official statistics data (National Statistics Institute) indicates that nut consumption per capita in calendar year (CY) 2024 grew by 12.5 percent to 1.8 kilograms (kg), from 1.6 kg in CY 2023. This follows double digit growth in the previous year (GAIN BU 2025-0002). On average, Bulgarian households purchased 3.5 kg in 2024 compared to 2.7 kg in 2023 or 30 percent more at an average price of 9.46 Euro/kg in 2024 compared to 8.45 Euro/kg in 2023 – a12 percent higher price. As this data is only for retail sales and does not include consumption in the food service industry or processing, actual market consumption is higher. The trend has reportedly continued into the current marketing year.
Tree Nut Supply and Demand for MY 2024/25 and Estimates for MY 2025/26
Production
Bulgaria has good climate conditions for tree nut production (almonds, walnuts, peanuts, and hazelnuts). The country produces a small quantity of almonds for the domestic market only. In the past, Bulgaria produced enough walnuts to meet its consumption and export small quantities in the region.
In MY 2024/25, almond production saw significant growth – reaching 1,140 metric tons, (MT) its highest level since 2019, and 83 percent more than in the previous MY (Table 1). This growth was due mainly to a much higher harvested area – 71 percent more than in MY 2023/24, as well as 7.4 percent higher average yields. The share of harvested area of planted almonds increased from 41 percent in MY 2023/24 to 72 percent in MY 2024/25. This was a notable change after years of decline (Table 1, Graph 1). However, production was still below the record achieved in 2018 (1,286 MT). Reportedly, higher almond prices motivated producers to invest in better harvesting practices.
Walnut production also increased to 4,240 MT, 23 percent more than MY 2023/24. However, this growth was due mainly to better average yields of 22 percent, while the harvested area expanded by less than 1 percent. The share of harvested area to planted area saw small growth, from 57 percent to 59 percent (Table 1, Graph 2). See GAIN BU 2025-0002 regarding production regions and age structure of orchards of almonds and walnuts. Due to an ongoing decline in subsidies for new orchards, the size and share of young orchards for both almonds and walnuts continued to shrink (Table 1).
In MY 2024/25, average tree nut yields increased due to more favorable weather in different production regions. Almond yields increased by 7.4 percent and walnut yields by 22 percent, compared to MY 2023/24. Product quality also improved compared to the previous year.
Organic tree nut production is not significant. Certified organic areas declined by 2 percent from 8,396 HA in 2023 to 8,235 HA in 2024. Organic tree nut production in 2024 grew by 41 percent to 1,614 MT compared to 1,144 MT in 2023. Total tree nut supply increased significantly to 5,380 MT by 32 percent over MY 2023/24 (4,072 MT) (Table 1). This had an impact on trade by reducing import needs despite booming demand.
In MY 2025/26, based on the available area harvested and yield data (Ministry of Agriculture/MinAg and industry information), almond and walnut production are expected to decrease significantly, following sharp growth in MY 2024/25. The MinAg does not track almond production on a weekly basis and FAS Sofia estimates for production, supply, and demand for MY 2025/26 are based only on industry information (Table 2). Bulgaria’s severe 2025 summer drought is the main cause of this projected decline in production.
Almond production is estimated to decrease to about 650 MT, a level seen two years ago, mainly due to reduced yields. For walnuts, the latest MinAg weekly bulletin (MinAg Bulletin #1, January 15, 2026, tentative data) reports walnut harvested area to be 52 percent lower, with average yields decreasing by 30 percent, leading to a 67 percent reduction in production compared to MY 2024/25. Based on this data and industry information, FAS Sofia forecasts walnut production to slide downward to 3,500 MT in MY 2025/26. These production estimates are subject to revision upon availability of final tree nut harvest data. The estimated decline in domestic supply will likely motivate higher imports.
Consumption and Consumer Preferences
Bulgarian consumer demand for tree nuts has strengthened in recent years. The Bulgarian retail market for nuts (tree nuts, peanuts, seeds, and trail mixes) in CY 2024 was valued at 134 million Bulgarian leva/BGN ($74 million) and at 138 million BGN in CY 2025 ($80 million). According to industry estimates (Euromonitor), the retail market is expected to grow to 161 million BGN ($92 million) by 2030. The average annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030 is projected at around three percent. In volume, retail market sales are estimated at 5,800 MT-6,000 MT. Food service sales are much smaller, (under 1,000 MT). The rest of consumption goes for industry use/processing and production of confectionary products (Tables 2 and 3).
Tree nut retail sales have been boosted by a stronger consumer focus and improved awareness of a healthier lifestyle and diet. Consumers are increasingly interested in product innovations, new flavors, and nut blends. The local retail market is dominated by a few market players who are expanding the assortment of nuts: emphasizing consistently high quality, adding value by new flavors and processed nuts products. Most specialized nuts retail outlets add quality and/or organic condiments, dried fruits, beverages (tea/coffee and soft drinks), and snacks as side products which sell well with nuts. Please, see GAIN BU 2025-0002.
A recently retail market survey on the tree nut market for 2024 shows that the product category of roasted tree nuts generated annual growth of 10.4 percent in sales (value) as a result of 8.4 percent higher prices and 1.9 percent higher sales volume. The main factor driving the roasted nut market is less expensive prices compared to raw nuts. In addition, there was increased demand in the larger size packages offered in this segment – 250 grams (g), 500 g and 1 kilogram. Raw nuts, on the other hand, had 11.6 percent sales growth in value, driven by an 8.7 percent price growth. The preferred size packages were 70 g and 80 g, which sold the fastest due to the lowest price increase for this size. Private label sales for both types of nuts grew in double digits, driven by lower prices and consumer demand.
Roasted nuts had a market share of 16 percent in volume and raw nuts had a market share of 40 percent. Peanuts were the most popular choice among processed nuts. Peanuts had 35 percent market share in sales in volume, nut mixes 9 percent, cashews 5 percent, almonds 3 percent, pistachios 3 percent, and other types of nuts were at 8 percent.
In 2024, 212 new products were launched on the market in the “Processed (roasted) nuts” category. Thisvincluded 25 new products under peanuts segment, 13 percent in nut mixes, 7 percent in cashews, and 6vpercent in almonds and pistachios.
Nut mixes or nut and fruit mixes remained the most important for raw nuts category. Data shows a 9 percent drop in the price of nut mixes and an 8.7 percent increase in the average price of raw nuts, driven by the change in the price of hazelnuts. For the raw nuts market (volume), the shares of different categories were the following: nut and fruit mix 29 percent, cashew 15 percent, almonds 14 percent, walnuts 12 percent, nut mix 9 percent, and other 13 percent. Raw nuts contributed to the development of the category with 44 new products, with the largest share of innovations being represented in almonds and walnuts (18 percent), pumpkin seeds, nut and fruit mixes (14 percent), sunflower seeds (7 percent), and peanut and nut mixes (7 percent). The focus was on larger size/weights.
Successful marketing strategies included promotional activities around holidays. Snacks with healthy and functional ingredients, such as those high in protein and fiber, and low in calories and sugar, were leading. Innovative flavors brought new sensory experiences to consumers. Good positioning of these products on social networks was key to positive sales development. Promotional activities remained key for the nuts category, as the right strategies and positioning contributed to a significant increase in sales.
The market share of the three top companies (Detelina, Victoria Nuts, and Elit) increased from 43.6 percent in 2024 to 43.8 percent CY 2025. The next five companies, Kronos, Dani, Kerpi, Milena-Hristo Hristov ET, and Ivtoni Shopov Ltd. accounted for 29.7 percent of the national market. Small companies (1 to 3 percent share each) jointly accounted for 26.8 percent in 2024 compared to 26.5 percent in 2025 (source: Euromonitor). Some players such as Yadki Nachev, Mr. Almond, Nuts Bg and Top Foods, combined specialized retail outlets for high-end, quality nuts with online sales and make efforts to expand their portfolio with plant based products such as almond milk, protein snacks and other.
In MY 2024/25, there was more demand for tree nuts from both direct consumption and for processing in the confectionary industry. Improved local supply and quality of tree nuts led to slightly lower imports in volume. Despite higher market prices and local consumers being price sensitive, consumption is estimated to increase. Consumption estimates are based on FAS Sofia interviews with trade sources and statistical data on consumption patterns.
Almonds: Domestic consumption has steadily grown in recent years due to the excellent image of almonds as nutritious, healthy, and quality snacks. FAS Sofia estimates almond consumption has increased by about 2 percent in MY 2024/25 and reached 3,230 MT, marking a new record. This increase also continued growth over the last 5 years. Imports accounted for about 80 percent of total supply (Table 2) despite 22 percent higher import prices negatively affecting consumption. Industry sources note growth in consumption could have been stronger if almond prices were not sharply higher.
Travel, tourism, and hospitality outlets continued to support growth in consumption. Traders report local demand by the confectionary industry has improved (Table 2, Graph 3). FAS Sofia forecasts slightly higher almond consumption in MY 2025/26 with growth up to 2 percent (in volume) due to continuing price increases (see the Trade Section).
Walnuts: Walnut consumption in MY 2024/25 saw greater growth than almonds and is estimated to have reached a new record of 10,864 MT, or 44 percent more than in the previous MY. This was due to better local production and a very significant 71 percent increase in imports. Imports accounted for 66 percent of total supply. The price increase for imported walnuts was less significant than almonds at 6 percent vs the previous MY which stimulated improved processing/industrial use and growing retail sales. FAS Sofia forecasts walnut consumption in MY 2025/26 to continue to grow to over 11,000 MT, especially in the light of more stable prices (Tables 3 and 4, Trade Section).
Bulgarian processors are increasingly using nuts in sweet and confectionary products such as waffles, cookies, cakes, desserts, and chocolate. In 2024 and 2025, production of protein snacks increased significantly as most of these products contain nuts. In addition, plant protein-based milk, usually from nuts, became very popular, especially in urban areas. Some of this processing is for products that are exported. Exports of confectionary products (HS#1905) increased by 7 percent to $424 million in CY 2024 compared to $397 million in CY 2023. In January-October 2025, exports increased by about 23 percent compared to the corresponding period in CY 2024 (source: Trade Data Monitor/TDM). The major confectionary producers continued to expand production and to invest in new equipment and larger storage facilities.
Industry sources expect the tree nut market in MY 2025/26 to be more stable with slower growth rates. This is due to the estimated decrease in local supply, creating opportunities for higher imports. Therefore, import prices will be critical for consumer demand. In September and October 2025 (MY 2025/26), almond imports prices were 37 percent higher than a year ago with imports in volume growing by 19 percent. This signals more modest growth in market/consumption volumes while sales in value will likely continue to expand. In October 2025 (MY 2025/26), walnut import prices dropped by 33 percent while imports in volume skyrocketed more than 5-fold, due to aggressive imports from People’s Republic of China (PRC). If this trend continues, walnut consumption has positive prospects for further growth in volume.
Trade
Imports of almonds and walnuts in MY 2024/25 grew to a new record of 10,970 MT over MY 2023/24 (Table 4, Graph 4). This represented a considerable 41 percent increase compared to 7,797 MT imported in MY 2023/24. In terms of value, almond imports reached $16.9 million, and walnut imports $15.0 million, or again a new record ($31.9 million) in tree nuts trade, 36 percent more than the value of tree nuts imports a year before ($23.4 million).
Almonds: In MY 2024/25, almond imports (Shelled weight [SH]), declined by about 9 percent. In addition to better local supply, another reason for this reduction was the considerable growth in average import price of 22 percent to $6,326/MT compared to $5,165/MT in MY 2023/24 (Trade Data Monitor/TDM) (Table 2 and 4). These prices resulted in expanding imports in value, generating almost 12 percent over MY 2023/24 growth to about $17 million in trade. The bulk of imports were shelled almonds (HS#080212). The main suppliers of almonds to Bulgaria are the United States, Spain, and Greece.
Imports from the United States (shelled almonds) in MY 2024/25 declined by about 9 percent in tonnage but grew by about 14 percent in value (Table 4) due to 24 percent higher import prices ($6,243/MT vs. $5,023/MT). The United States accounted for 64 percent and 63 percent of imports, in volume and value terms, respectively. Thus, U.S. almonds strengthened their market position as a leading origin. Spain accounted for 11 percent of imports and Greece for 13 percent (volume).
In the first two months of MY 2025/26 (September and October 2025), almond import prices kept their upward trend at 37 percent higher than a year ago ($7,636/MT vs $5,562/MT). Nevertheless, imports demonstrated resilience and grew by 19 percent (in volume) and by 64 percent (in value) compared to a year ago.
Walnuts: In MY 2024/25, walnut imports skyrocketed to a new record of about 8,300 MT (In-Shell weight [ISH]), increasing by 70 percent compared to the previous MY (Tables 3 and 4). In terms of value, imports grew to $15.04 million, a 81-percent increase over MY 2023/24 with 6 percent higher import prices for walnuts ($1,813/ MT in MY 2024/25 vs $1,711/MT in MY 2023/24) (Table 4). Shelled walnuts (HS#080232) are generally in higher demand and imports increased to 7,499 MT (ISH) compared to 4,347 MT (ISH) over the previous MY or 73 percent more. Shelled walnuts accounted for 90 percent of total imports versus 10 percent for walnuts in-shell. The PRC and Ukraine are the main suppliers of shelled walnuts with 70 percent and 15 percent share each, respectively, of total imports. Ukraine is also the major supplier of walnuts in shell with 65 percent of imports while the PRC accounts for 27 percent.
The United States exports both shelled and in-shell walnuts to Bulgaria. However, in MY 2024/25 U.S. walnut imports decreased to only 20 MT in-shell product (ISH) at $43,000, mainly due to strong price-competitive imports from the PRC and Ukraine (Table 4). In the first month of MY 2025/26 (October 2025), walnut import prices reverted their trend and dropped by 33 percent from a year ago ($1,328 MT vs $1,991/MT). As a result, imports grew substantially both in volume (by 513 percent) and in value (by 310 percent) compared to a year ago.
Major walnut export markets for Bulgaria are Greece, Albania, and Kosovo. In MY 2024/25 walnut exports increased by 110 percent (to 1,673 MT vs 797 MT) compared with the previous MY (Table 4), due to a better total supply. Reportedly, some of these quantities were transshipped and/or further processed imported product.
Other Tree Nuts: Favorable demand for tree nuts has gradually diversified and expanded to less familiar, high-end tree nuts such as pistachios. In MY 2024/25, pistachio imports (ISH) grew to a new record of 1,423 MT vs 1,308 MT in the previous MY which marked a 9 percent increase despite sharply higher average import price of 45 percent ($10,079/MT vs $6,963/MT). In terms of value, imports were 57 percent higher at $14.34 million (Table 4). Trade in U.S. pistachios (in-shell pistachios) declined by 41 percent in volume and by 26 percent in value, mainly due to expensive prices.
The United States kept its position of a leading supplier with 30 percent share in total imports. However, some of the product imported from Germany, the second leading supplier, was also of U.S. origin. (Table 4). In October 2025 (MY 2025/26), imports continued to expand with 103 percent growth in imported tonnage and 154 percent increase in value. Import prices were 25 percent higher than a year before but more stable at the average level seen in MY 2024/25 ($10,323/MT).
— By Mila Boshnikova-Petrova, USDA Foreign Ag Service, Bulgaria
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